Fantasy Football Start/Sit Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks (Week 3)

Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.

Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.

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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Week 3

Derek Brown shares his Week 3 start/sit lineup advice for fantasy football managers.

Strong Starts

Jared Goff (QB – DET)

Jared Goff has been strong for fantasy through two games as the QB7 in fantasy points per game. Among 28 qualifying passers, he has been sixth-best in passer rating and passing success rate, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in hero throw rate. Goff will have to contend with the Lions’ former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn this week, who has the Jets’ pass defense off to a fast start. Now, I do also have to mention that the Jets have faced Cam Ward and Jordan Love so far, so take it with a grain of salt. Ward and Love have begun the season with struggle bus games. The Jets have allowed the ninth-lowest passing success rate, the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback, and the third-lowest explosive pass rate. Those are impressive stats. The Jets are also fifth in pressure rate and eighth in blitz rate. Goff has destroyed the blitz so far this season, ranking seventh in passing success rate and second in passer rating. I think Goff will still have success this week despite the Jets’ defensive quick start out of the blocks.

Bryce Young (QB – CAR)

After two games, Bryce Young is the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Yes, it’s insane, but it’s true. I think Young can keep the train rolling this week, but I’m worried about his ability to do this for the entire season. Among 29 qualifying passers, Young ranks third in yards per attempt, tenth in passing success rate, and eighth in hero throw rate, BUT he also has the second-lowest catchable target rate, the second-lowest highly accurate throw rate, and has faced the ninth-lowest pressure rate. There’s a ton of volatility in that statistical profile when you also realize he is second in deep ball rate. Big risk. Big reward, but the other side of the coin could eventually show itself. I think Young can keep up the magic act this week, though. The Browns have allowed the fifth-highest passing success rate, the seventh-highest passer rating, the fifth-highest CPOE, and logged the 11th-lowest pressure rate. Young should have time to pick apart this pass defense in Week 3.

Kyler Murray (QB – MIN)

Kyler Murray has cleared the concussion protocol and will start in Week 3. In Week 1, Murray played only 11 snaps before leaving the game. He completed three of his five passes with 3.6 yards per attempt. This is essentially Murray’s first start of the season. Murray could have success this week if he can withstand the blitz. Tampa Bay has blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (44.4%). Since 2024, among 25 qualifying quarterbacks, Murray ranks 24th in yards per attempt and dead last in EPA per dropback against the blitz. If Murray can reverse this trend, he should have a nice day against a pass defense that has allowed the 14th-most yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passing success rate, and the 14th-highest EPA per dropback. The Bucs also have the seventh-lowest pressure rate, so the blitzes haven’t been getting home. I have cautious hope for Murray this week.

Tyler Shough (QB – NO)

Tyler Shough is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. No, that’s not a typo. He has been awesome for fantasy. Shough is also playing good football from a “real” football perspective. Among 29 qualifying passers, he is 15th in yards per attempt and passing success rate, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, 14th in catchable target rate, and FIRST in hero throw rate. Shough has started slowly in both games before turning it on in the second halves. The Raiders (on paper) look like a tougher matchup for Shough, but they have only faced Justin Herbert and Malik Willis, so I’m willing to take the Raiders’ defensive stats with a grain of salt. Las Vegas has held passers to the eighth-lowest passing success rate, the sixth-lowest EPA per dropback, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points per dropback. The one area that I do think is real for the Raiders is the fact that they are eighth-best in pressure rate. Luckily for Shough, he has the third-best yards per attempt and fourth-best passing success rate against pressure through two games. I think this is another strong game for Shough.

Geno Smith (QB – NYJ)

Through two games, the fantasy success hasn’t been there for Geno Smith (QB23), but that could change this week. Smith has operated as a solid game manager for his first two outings with the Jets. Among 28 qualifying passers, Smith has ranked 15th in yards per attempt, 16th in passing success rate, and sixth in catchable target rate, but he has also had the eighth-lowest aDOT and the tenth-lowest hero throw rate. Smith has been asked to operate quickly as a point guard. That could work well in Week 3. The Lions’ pass defense has been a hollow shell through two games, allowing the eighth-highest passing success rate and the 11th-most EPA per dropback. They have also ranked second-best in blitz rate and pressure rate. Their ability to get home with the pass rush will be huge, but Smith has been strong against the blitz as a Jet, ranking fourth-best in yards per attempt and fifth in passing success rate. Smith is a strong QB2 this week who could surprise with fringe QB1 production.

Kirk Cousins (QB – LV)

Through two games of the 2026 NFL season, Kirk Cousins is the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Do I expect this to continue all season? Nope. Do I also need to show Kirko Chainz some respect? Yep. Among 29 qualifying passers, he has been average on a per-dropback basis, ranking 19th in yards per attempt, 21st in passing success rate (13th-highest aDOT), 20th in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth-best in catchable target rate. Cousins has been better than many expected to begin the season. I don’t know if Cousins has another standout performance in him for Week 3, but he’s a viable streaming option and should return at least strong QB2 production this week. The Saints rank 17th in EPA per dropback allowed while giving up the sixth-highest passing success rate and 11th-highest CPOE.

Fantasy Football Streamers & Deep Plays to Consider

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Matthew Stafford looked exactly like the guy we thought we were getting in Week 1 last week. He ripped the Giants’ secondary apart as the QB6 for the week. Stafford had 327 passing yards and four scores. He amassed 10.5 yards per attempt with a 74.2% highly accurate throw rate, a 6.5% hero throw rate, and a 93.5% catchable target rate. You can’t get much better than that. This week, he’ll face a Denver pass defense that has held passers to the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest passing success rate, and the 12th-fewest EPA per dropback. We’ll see if he can keep the train rolling. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stafford posts another strong QB1 performance or if he looks closer to the quarterback we saw in Week 1. There’s a wide range of outcomes here for Stafford in Week 3.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

C.J. Stroud is the QB15 in fantasy points per game. He still (per the metrics) resembles the struggling passer that we have seen for the last few seasons. Among 29 qualifying passers, Stroud has the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passing success rate, the sixth-highest off-target rate, and the fifth-lowest catchable target rate. There’s nothing good to take away from that collection of stats. Stroud can continue to be awful this week and still walk away with a solid QB2 week against Indy’s porous pass defense. Indy has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passing success rate, the fourth-most EPA per dropback, and the fourth-highest CPOE.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)

Trevor Lawrence has been Jekyll and Hyde to begin the season. He beat up on the Browns as the QB5 for the week, and then he was the QB26 in weekly scoring last week against Denver. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, fifth in passing success rate, 20th in highly accurate throw rate, 25th in hero throw rate, and he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate. There’s a lot of good there while also plenty of concerning data points. He has another tough matchup against the Pats this week. Yes, New England has only faced Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers this season, so take their metrics with a grain of salt. They have also held those passers to the second-lowest EPA per dropback, the 14th-lowest passing success rate, and the tenth-lowest explosive pass rate. If you’re being an optimist, this is a neutral matchup being propped up metrically by facing subpar passers. With Lawrence’s concerning metrics, I’m a little more worried about him than that viewpoint would suggest.

Michael Penix Jr. (QB – ATL)

Michael Penix will make his 2026 season debut this week, coming off a torn ACL. Last year, he was the QB26 in fantasy points per game with only three QB1 outings in weekly scoring. Among 43 qualifying passers, he was 17th in yards per attempt, 21st in passing success rate, and 42nd in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate. There’s not a ton to love there. Penix could have a rough start to his season against a pass defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passing success rate, the 14th-fewest fantasy points per dropback, and has generated the tenth-best pressure rate.

Jordan Love (QB – GB)

Jordan Love hasn’t played well to begin the season. Yes, he’s the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but that’s on the strength of a high-passing-volume Week 1, which carried him to QB11 for that week. Last week, he fell to QB20 in weekly scoring. Love has been struggling as a passer. Among 29 qualifying passers, Love does have the 12th-highest yards per attempt and the ninth-highest aDOT, but he also has the fourth-lowest passing success rate, the lowest highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate, and the highest off-target rate. Love could struggle again this week against a pass defense that has the third-best pressure rate while allowing the third-lowest passing success rate, the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, and the 14th-fewest EPA per dropback.

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