India vs. Sri Lanka live win probability, score, chances of victory for Asian Games women's cricket final 2026

India and Sri Lanka are meeting in the Women's Asian Games cricket final for the second successive edition, making Tuesday's gold medal contest at Korogi Sports Park, Nisshin, a direct repeat of Hangzhou 2023, the match India won to claim the title three years ago.

India beat hosts Japan by eight wickets in the quarter-finals, and then swept Bangladesh aside by 114 runs in the semi-finals to secure their place in the decider.

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Sri Lanka have been equally convincing as they picked up an 86-run win over Malaysia in the quarters, which was followed by an eight-wicket thrashing of Pakistan in the semi-finals.

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Shafali Verma arrives in the final in exceptional form, while Smriti Mandhana, Shree Charani and Deepti Sharma the other star performers.

This also marks the second time this month that India and Sri Lanka are contesting a continental final, as they met in the Asia Cup final in Dubai less than 10 days ago, with India winning comfortably by 72 runs after Mandhana and Shafali scored fifties.

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Sri Lanka's challenge centres almost entirely on captain Chamari Athapaththu, who has been the tournament's standout player with 146 runs in just two innings and three wickets.

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India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 women's cricket final live updates and toss result

After 20 overs, India are 216/3

India finished their innings with an explosive flourish, racking up a mammoth 216/3 courtesy of an absolute masterclass in death-overs hitting. Despite losing Harmanpreet Kaur (19) and a well-set Smriti Mandhana for a dazzling 79 off 45 deliveries, Richa Ghosh took full command of the closing stages.

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Ghosh blitzed an unbeaten 49 off just 22 balls, striking at an incredible 222.72 alongside Bharti Fulmali. The pair unleashed mayhem late on, putting together a rapid 53-run partnership off only 19 deliveries that was capped by a punishing 25-run final over off Mithali Ayodhya.

After 16 overs, India are 157/2

Mandhana continued her boundary blitz unabated, dispatching seven huge maximums and moving to 79* off 44 balls at a strike rate near 180. Skipper Harmanpreet Kaur provided able support with 19 off 17 before chipping Kavisha Dilhari to Chamari Athapaththu in the 15th over at 141/2. Rather than slow down, Richa Ghosh immediately went on the offensive, striking two boundaries off Chamudi Praboda in a 15-run 16th over to leave India Women poised for a massive death-overs surge.

After 12 overs, India are 112/1

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India wrapped up the Powerplay at 67/0 and kept the boundaries flowing as both openers dismantled Sri Lanka's spin attack. Mandhana reached a rapid half-century off just 35 deliveries in the 10th over. However, Sri Lanka finally got a breakthrough right on the stroke of drinks (9.6 overs) when Chamudi Praboda dismissed Shafali Verma for a fiery 48 (29 balls), ending a devastating 99-run opening stand.

After six overs, India are 67/0

India Women came out firing on all cylinders in the gold medal encounter, launching a brutal Powerplay assault from ball one without conceding a single extra. Smriti Mandhana set the tone with effortless timing to race to 30 off just 15 deliveries, while Shafali Verma matched her intent at the other end with 22 off 12.

Toss: India Women have won the toss and have opted to bat

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India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 women's cricket final: Playing XI

Sri Lanka Women (Playing XI): Imesha Dulani, Chamari Athapaththu(c), Hasini Perera, Harshitha Samarawickrama, Kavisha Dilhari, Hansima Karunaratne, Kaushani Nuthyangana(w), Mithali Ayodhya, Kawya Kavindi, Chamudi Praboda, Sugandika Kumari

India Women (Playing XI): Smriti Mandhana, Shafali Verma, Gunalan Kamalini, Harmanpreet Kaur(c), Richa Ghosh(w), Bharti Fulmali, Deepti Sharma, Shreyanka Patil, Shree Charani, Nandani Sharma, Kranti Gaud

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 women's cricket final: Win percentage

India vs. Sri Lanka Asian Games 2026 women's cricket final: Betting odds

India are the favourites to win this match at 1.06 on Dafa, while the odds for Sri Lanka to win are 7.00.

* Odds are correct at the time of publish but subject to change.

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