12-club finals race... and bitter bottom-six reality: Early verdict on every AFL club’s 2026 fate

The 2026 AFL season is still an eternity away, but with the trade period over and done with, fans and pundits now for the first time can get a gauge on where their club stands going into next season.

A whopping eight clubs we believe fit the bill of being flag contenders, another four more loom as finals contenders, while a further six sides will be hopeful of separating themselves from the bottom third of the ladder.

Foxfooty.com.au assesses all 18 clubs and predicts whether they’ll challenge for the top-eight race, or face a dip in fortunes.

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ADELAIDE CROWS — FINALS CONTENDER

This year’s minor premiers could hardly have done more during the 2025 home-and-away season, but their September performance was well below par. Their rapid rise up the ladder was remarkable, but a tougher 2026 fixture will now reflect that success, making it harder to cement themselves as a top-eight mainstay. Coupled with their straight-sets finals exit, it’s difficult to label Adelaide as genuine flag contenders just yet. Had they secured a marquee midfielder to address their engine room concerns, the outlook might be different. But, for now, it feels like they’re at least another season away from truly challenging for the premiership.

BRISBANE LIONS — FLAG CONTENDER

The least surprising verdict of any club in the league. Having now won back-to-back premierships, Chris Fagan’s troops have somehow got even stronger with Oscar Allen and Sam Draper joining their changerooms this off-season. The loss of two-time flag hero Brandon Starcevich will be sorely felt, but given a handful of genuine guns missed their grand final win this season, there’s no doubt over their depth in any line. No one since Hawthorn last decade has won three in a row, but it is very hard to not have the Lions as the favourites once more in 2026.

CARLTON — BOTTOM SIX

The Blues are perhaps the unluckiest of the half a dozen teams stuck with the ‘bottom six’ label. But, with as much turnover as they’ve had this off-season — plus the departure of a two-time Coleman Medallist — there is scepticism about. As they know all about these last two years, the competition is as strong as it’s ever been at the top; only making their route to finals harder. The output from stars such as Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh will be as critical as ever, while the inclusion of Swans duo Will Hayward and Ollie Florent is certainly handy. Add in Jagga Smith, and if the Blues can maintain a healthy list, this prediction could be far from the mark, but the questions at this stage are valid.

COLLINGWOOD — FLAG CONTENDER

How long is a piece of string? The oldest team in V/AFL history will go around again in 2026 — only with even less time on their side. No one doubts Collingwood’s ability to win it all, as they did in 2023, but unlike most rivals, they remain a ticking time bomb given their veteran-heavy list profile. The loss of Brody Mihocek has been partly offset by the arrival of Sydney forward Jack Buller, more than eight years his junior. However, with Mason Cox and Tom Mitchell among those delisted, Craig McRae and his staff are clearly backing their next wave of talent to provide adequate depth. With their first draft selection not until pick 39, it’s unlikely they’ll unearth an instant flag difference-maker... but stranger things have happened!

ESSENDON — BOTTOM SIX

Amid all the criticism directed at Essendon in 2025, their inability to keep a healthy list was undoubtedly their biggest hurdle. In fact, their best 23 in 2026 will look almost unrecognisable compared to what they fielded in the back half of this season. That doesn’t necessarily elevate them into genuine finals contention, but they should clearly rise above the bottom three. Concerns remain around the make-up of their midfield, with no obvious gamebreaker to consistently support Zach Merrett. Their best defensive unit however is more than serviceable, while their forward line, when it clicks, has the potential to cause serious problems for opposition coaches. The delistings of senior players in Todd Goldstein, Dylan Shiel and Jayden Laverde will open the door for greater exposure at youth level, though it comes at the cost of on-field experience and leadership.

FREMANTLE — FLAG CONTENDER

12 months ago, we listed Fremantle as a flag contender — despite their absence from finals since 2022. They achieved that first step this year, but again fell short of a semi-final berth. The recruitment of Judd McVee is a valuable addition to their defensive half, but it’s now clear the Dockers must rise on the strength of their current list. With arguably the best spine in the competition, 2026 looms as go time for Justin Longmuir and his squad. The retirements of Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters, James Aish and Quinton Narkle may stretch their depth, but at full health they should be firmly in the top-four frame. After three seasons of teasing their potential, Longmuir still enters 2026 under pressure to convert promise into a genuine premiership tilt — even on the back of a strong 16-win home-and-away campaign.

GEELONG — FLAG CONTENDER

The 2025 grand finalists will be among the league’s elite again in 2026, but in a similar (but less extreme) way to Collingwood, the clock is quietly ticking. Captain Patrick Dangerfield leads a core of Cats veterans — Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron — all set to be 33 or older by next April. While Geelong has plenty of talent entering or just entering their prime to keep them at the top, Connor O’Sullivan is the only player under 21 on their list to have logged more than two AFL games. Once more, it looks like the Cats are walking a tightrope of sorts with their player profiles, but after years of sustained excellence, we really can’t question it until their results suggest so too!

GOLD COAST SUNS — FLAG CONTENDER

After 15 long seasons, the Suns are officially (and finally) in the premiership window. Damien Hardwick’s second year at the helm was a commendable success, and with their list set to strengthen further in 2026, they have a genuine shot at the crown. The acquisitions of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan bring enormous upside, and are arguably a surplus given the club’s already strong depth through the midfield and forward line. That said, their inclusion has come at the cost of several depth players lost to rival clubs. While Gold Coast’s list was healthier than most in 2025, injuries could expose a few gaps through the centre of the ground if luck doesn’t go their way.

GWS GIANTS — FLAG CONTENDER

Consistency. Consistency. Consistency. If the Giants can produce their best football more regularly in 2026, they’re capable of beating anyone. The prime example: their explosive third quarter in this year’s elimination final against Hawthorn, where they slashed a seven-goal deficit in under half a term. The bonus addition of Clayton Oliver and the unexpected retention of Leek Aleer significantly bolster their depth; now it’s about translating that talent into week-to-week performance. At their peak, they’re as dangerous as any side in the competition — which is why we still rate them as a genuine premiership contender.

HAWTHORN — FLAG CONTENDER

Sam Mitchell’s side has now shown tangible progress over two seasons, positioning themselves firmly in the premiership window for a second consecutive pre-season. However, the club will feel they missed a major opportunity to make an impact during the recent trade period, with their all-in approach for Zach Merrett ultimately falling short. The result leaves their midfield still one genuine match-winner short — a gap only a fully fit Will Day can hope to bridge. While Day’s absence earlier exposed their on-ball brigade, the departure of James Worpel to Geelong further reduces the pool of ready-made midfield options. Many will expect the Hawks to go deep once more in September, but can they topple the likes of Brisbane and Geelong come crunch time?

MELBOURNE — BOTTOM SIX

It’s not impossible for Melbourne to rebound from their underwhelming 2025 campaign, but new head coach Steven King has a significant challenge on his hands. Although the club encouraged Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver to explore opportunities elsewhere, their exits have left a glaring midfield void. On the positive side, Jack Steele shapes as a valuable inclusion both on and off the field, while Brody Mihocek provides much-needed support in attack alongside Jake Melksham and Jacob van Rooyen. Still, the question marks are too substantial right now to confidently project the Demons finishing outside the bottom third of the ladder. It’s not that they lack capability, but on paper, at least a dozen clubs appear better positioned heading into 2026.

NORTH MELBOURNE — BOTTOM SIX

Sorry Roos fans, we just haven’t seen enough yet to re-label you yet. The upside within the four walls art Arden Street remains, but a relatively inactive trade period and no first-round pick in this year’s draft doesn’t quite set the tone. Of course, the likes of Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher and Finn O’Sullivan will pocket another pre-season under their belt and lead Alastair Clarkson’s youth. List manager Brady Rawlings was adamant during the trade period that their key defensive stocks are

PORT ADELAIDE — FINALS CONTENDER

By the barest of margins, the Power have made the cut as a finals contender. The nucleus of their side is just far too good to not be pushing for a September birth, with the likes of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis, Miles Bergman and Mitch Georgiades all certified stars or guns. That being said, there are still notable flaws within their list that were easily exposed in 2025 amid an injury crisis. Their key defensive stocks are thin beyond Aliir Aliir, while the retirement of Willie Rioli leaves an even greater void in their small forward stocks. Plus, they still haven’t found an effective replacement for Dan Houston off half-back. It leaves new head coach Josh Carr with a lot to work out from the get-go, but with an easier fixture next year, there is a world where they sneak into the top eight.

RICHMOND — BOTTOM SIX

Almost no one predicted Richmond would finish 2025 with just five wins, and even with another year of development, a finals tilt still feels unlikely in 2026. If Adem Yze’s side can again separate themselves from West Coast and remain on pace with North Melbourne, the season will be viewed as a success — unless the Kangaroos unexpectedly fall apart. Delisted Cat Patrick Retschko arrived via an unprecedented trade as their sole off-season addition, but with picks 3 and 4 in this year’s draft, the Tigers are well placed to inject more elite youth and set their sights on a more serious surge in 2027.

ST KILDA — FINALS CONTENDER

No club faces a sharper rise in external expectation next season than St Kilda. After adding a suite of reliable recruits and successfully retaining star wantaway Rowan Marshall, Ross Lyon’s side has run out of excuses. With emerging talent progressing and a genuine superstar in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to build around, it’s finals or failure. The lingering question is who will consistently fire in attack alongside (or in place of) Max King. Until that’s answered, their forward-line structure looms as the Saints’ most pressing vulnerability heading into Round 1.

SYDNEY SWANS — FLAG CONTENDER

Sydney’s underwhelming 2025 can partly be attributed to a disastrous run with injuries to key personnel. But heading into 2026, there are no excuses — particularly with the addition of dual Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow. A full season under head coach Dean Cox also bodes well for his own confidence at the helm, with continuity sure to only grow. Last year marked the first time since 2020 that the Swans missed finals, but their strong form in the back half of the season suggests that outcome shouldn’t strike twice. With Curnow now in the fold, the only potential weakness lies in their key defensive stocks — an area that could be exposed if injury troubles return.

WEST COAST EAGLES — BOTTOM SIX

Unfortunately for Eagles fans, 2026 may not look markedly different from 2025. While the defensive additions of Brandon Starcevich and Tylar Young are astute, the departures of Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan and Campbell Chesser — who was beginning to show promising development — further deplete their depth. Add the retirements of Mitch McGovern, Dom Sheed and Jayden Hunt, and there’s no guarantee things won’t get worse before they improve. On a more optimistic note, the club will hope Elliot Yeo can finally move past his injury struggles, while potentially welcoming two top-end draft picks. It’s also worth noting that as part of the AFL’s assistance package, West Coast will receive four additional rookie list spots, which they are expected to use on delisted, ready-made AFL talent. Bottom six? Yes. A chance to move off the bottom of the ladder? Sure!

WESTERN BULLDOGS — FINALS CONTENDER

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