PFT's Week 1 2026 NFL picks

The 2026 season returns tonight, and we’ll be doing things a little bit differently when it comes to the weekly effort to predict what may happen in the upcoming slate of games.

For decades, I’ve had my own thoughts about who will, or won’t, win in a given weekend. Thanks to the fact that my dad was a bookie, and given his incessant messaging that it’s impossible for the bettor to win over the long haul, I’ve had no inclination to wager on games.

When the floodgates for legalized, normalized, and monetized sports betting opened eight years ago, my relationship with the burgeoning industry became complicated, to say the least. There’s plenty of money to be made in sports media by aligning with one, or more, of the various sportsbooks and, more recently, prediction markets. I’ve declined to pursue any direct deals, due in large part to the reality that the ease of app-based betting has spawned, and will continue to create, generations of folks who fail to understand that, over time, it’s a losing proposition. (And, of course, the small minority who figure out a way to win consistently will inevitably be cut off.)

I’ve used this platform to be candid about the realities of betting, in the hopes of dissuading young men with still-developing brains from thinking it’s a path to getting rich quick or, even worse, from believing it’s a replacement for the more traditional means for making ends meet. I’ve previously balanced those concerns with taping weekly podcasts in which Simms and I made picks for every game against the spread.

It bugged me. It gnawed at me. Starting this year, I decided to stop doing it.

But what about my views on the coming games? Is it possible to pick winners and losers for the sheer fun of it, with no skin in the game — and without sending the message, directly or indirectly, that others should rely on my views when making their wagering decisions?

I decided to lay out my weekly picks, for amusement purposes only. “Amusement purposes only” used to be code for “go ahead and bet.” Now, it’s truly for amusement purposes only. With the addition of a clear caveat that you should only wager what you can afford to lose. Over time, you will.

Have a budget. Stick to it. And never, ever chase your losses. The gambling money should come from your entertainment budget. Use only the money you’d otherwise spend for movies, video games, steaming services, books (I’ve got four you can chose from, with more coming), and do not go beyond that. When the budgeted amount is gone, it’s gone.

I’ll reiterate that message very week, mainly because too few of the people in sports media who are grabbing the bag from sportsbooks and prediction markets will ever bother to tell the members of their audience the truth about gambling. As my dad the bookie started telling me more than 50 years ago, you can’t win.

With that, here’s my own personal look at each of the games. Do not rely on anything I say if you choose to devote any of your entertainment budget to betting on the games.

Patriots at Seahawks (Wednesday)

For the third time, a Super Bowl rematch happens in Week 1. The Patriots have beefed up the passing game, with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Quarterback Drake Maye and left tackle Will Campbell are healthy. The Seahawks lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to free agency. Rookie Jadarian Price carries the load, with Zach Charbonnet (knee) starting the season on the PUP list. And Seattle has a brand-new, first-time offensive coordinator in Brian Fleury, thanks to Klint Kubiak doing the job well enough in one year to become a head coach.

It won’t be easy for the Patriots, who were blown out by the Seahawks at a neutral site in February. But they have receivers Brown and Doubs. Maye is healthy. And they seem to be rallying around coach Mike Vrabel, after his eventful offseason. It’s a pure hunch. And I’d rather be wrong by being bold than to take the chalk and regret missing the potential signs for an opening-night upset.

Patriots 24, Seahawks 21.

49ers vs. Rams in Australia (Thursday)

The Rams reacted to a close-but-no-cigar 2025 season by adding defensive end Myles Garrett. Which sparked defensive tackle Aaron Donald’s unretirement. And while Donald didn’t make the trip to Melbourne, the Rams have enough to overcome a 49ers team that has had one bizarre thing after another happen to it this year.

While health will be a key factor as to whether the Rams can get to the Super Bowl and win it, they’re healthy for now. And they seem to fully believe in their plan to barnstorm in and out of Australia.

Rams 24, 49ers 13.

Bills at Texans

Few teams have ever faced more pressure than the Bills carry into 2026. The coach was fired after losing in overtime in the divisional round. The G.M. was promoted, as was the offensive coordinator. And the campaign starts with a trip to face the best defense in the NFL, which may be even better in 2026.

Yes, the offense is a major question mark for the Texans. They should be able to do enough to hold serve in a home game that could serve as the first step toward winning the top seed in the AFC.

Texans 20, Bills 16.

Buccaneers at Bengals

The Bucs relish the opportunity to get things started on the road, and quarterback Baker Mayfield’s new contract removes one significant potential distraction. But the Bengals know the stakes. A fourth straight season without a playoff berth will result in major changes.

For now, Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow sees parallels to his 2019 LSU team, which won a national championship. That’s enough to get me to give them the edge at home in what could be one of the most exciting games of the first weekend of the season.

Bengals 27, Buccaneers 24.

Bears at Panthers

Carolina won a none-of-the-above division last year, thanks to the Falcons beating the Saints on the final Sunday. The Bears traded to Carolina the pick that became quarterback Bryce Young, and that allowed the Bears (since Carolina bottomed out in 2023) to land MVP contender Caleb Wiliams.

It will be a challenging year for the Bears as the hunted in the NFC North. For now, their Week 1 Panther hunt should be successful.

Bears 24, Panthers 17.

Saints at Lions

Lions coach Dan Campbell believes the team’s Super Bowl window is still open. They have the talent to justify his faith. Now, they just have to prove it. A strong Week 1 start against a sneaky-good Saints team will help set the tone.

Much of it hinges on new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. With running back Jahmyr Gibbs now the centerpiece of the offense, it becomes much easier for any offensive coach to look like Bill Walsh.

Lions 34, Saints 24.

Ravens at Colts.

The team that fled Baltimore in 1984 hosts the team that backfilled the vacancy 12 years later. It’s a tough opener for a new coaching staff, but the Ravens have Lamar Jackson — and he seems to be a big believer in the new offense.

Ravens 24, Colts 20.

Falcons at Steelers

The post-Mike Tomlin era begins with what should be an easy win against Tua Tagovailoa, who won the QB1 job by default. The Steelers are 14-2-1 vs. the Falcons since the AFL-NFL merger. A loss would spark widespread panic in Pittsburgh, especially against a quarterback with a reputation for panicking when the first read is covered.

Steelers 21, Falcons 10.

Jets at Titans

Robert Saleh is saying all the right things publicly. Privately, he surely relishes the chance to stick it to the owner who prematurely pulled the plug on what could have been a potential playoff contender in 2024. The question is whether the Titans have enough talent to outscore the Jets. Home team gets the edge.

Titans 20, Jets 17.

Browns at Jaguars

Deshaun Watson gets a two-game audition in Florida, with the goal of doing enough to get the folks in Cleveland to accept him for Week 3 and Week 4. The Jaguars feel disrespected and overlooked; Sunday gives them a chance to put the world on notice that they’ll be a force in 2026.

Jaguars 28, Browns 14.

Commanders at Eagles

Before training camp, the Commanders landed in the group of teams that could break either way in 2026. It feels like it’s about to break badly for Washington. And it doesn’t help that they have to visit one of the best teams in the league to start the season.

Eagles 27, Commanders 14.

Packers at Vikings

The Packers have neither running back Josh Jacobs nor linebacker Micah Parsons. The Vikings are quietly optimistic about a team with a great defense and an offense that can’t be much worse than it was in 2025. Will they commit to their new outside zone running game? Will Kyler Murray turn back the clock to 2021? Week 1 will show plenty about whether the Vikings can continue their trend of making the playoffs every other year.

Vikings 30, Packers 20.

Cardinals at Chargers

Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has a 6-0 record in regular-season openers. He gets a winnable game and the first opportunity to get more out of an offense, with Mike McDaniel in charge, that has been good enough to win in the regular season but not good enough to advance in the playoffs. The Cardinals are a work in progress at best, stuck behind a trio of Super Bowl contenders in their own division.

Chargers 27, Cardinals 10.

Dolphins at Raiders

A pair of first-time coaches get together in Las Vegas, with new quarterbacks and generally overmatched rosters. Between them, they have a 48-year streak without playoff wins. Both are long shots to end those runs in 2026, because both are long shots to qualify for the postseason. But, hey, someone has to win this game. Unless there’s a tie.

And while both teams seem to constantly change, one thing has been fairly constant. Since 2000, the Dolphins are 12-3 against the Raiders. Between that, De’Von Achane, and a focus on putting a new culture in place, Miami gets a win in one of their rare winnable 2026 games.

Dolphins 13, Raiders 10.

Cowboys at Giants (Sunday night)

The Giants hired John Harbaugh with the goal of sparking a dramatic turnaround. What better way to do that than to overcome one of their biggest rivals on the weekend of the 25th anniversary of 9/11?

Giants 23, Cowboys 21.

Broncos at Chiefs (Monday night)

Patrick Mahomes is back. While he may not be better than ever, given his knee injury, the Chiefs will settle for as good as before. It won’t be easy and they may need a few jump balls from the football gods, but it just feels like a great way for the Chiefs to turn the page on a surprisingly poor 2025 showing.

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