Who will make finals in the race for the top 10?

July 13, 2026 — 11:31am

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With six rounds remaining in the 2026 AFL home-and-away season, the sprint to September is officially on.

Fremantle appear a lock for top spot, but Sydney’s hold on second place is vulnerable, and Hawthorn are still firmly in the hunt. From there, it’s anyone’s guess, so tight is the fight.

The introduction of the wildcard round – extending the number of clubs who can make finals from eight to 10 – has ensured more teams remain in the race at this point of the campaign.

We take a look at what awaits for your team.

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What we say: The Dockers are two games clear on top of the ladder and are the team to beat, despite a goalless first half against the Swans on Thursday. It didn’t matter, for they conjured one of the great comebacks of recent years, booting 100 points in the second half. This team is loaded. Their run home really opens up, with Port Adelaide (still in the wildcard hunt) and the derby over the next fortnight before two top-six contenders await. For those peering over the bonnet, one game to keep an eye on is their season closer against Carlton at Marvel Stadium.

Best-case finish: First. Worst-case finish: Second.

What we say: The Swans remain legitimate premiership contenders, but coach Dean Cox was understandably frustrated with the events post half-time in Perth. This defeat follows a 43-point loss to Brisbane a fortnight ago – is that something to ponder? The challenges still come, for they host the Crows and then have the always-heated “Battle of the Bridge”. They still have two interstate games remaining – one potentially tricky (St Kilda), the other (Essendon) not so.

Best-case finish: First. Worst-case finish: Third.

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What we say: The Hawks were back to their brutal best against the Blues, and still have Nick Watson and Josh Weddle to return. After an indifferent month, they have a soft fortnight ahead, facing Richmond and Essendon, and can press for a top-two finish. Then come three interstate trips to negotiate among their final four games, including Brisbane at the Gabba.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.

What we say: For all of their so-called issues this year, they are still one of the teams to beat, and they now have one of the easiest runs (on paper) to September. West Coast and Port Adelaide await over the next fortnight, the Lions can still secure the double chance.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Eighth.

What we say: Matthew Nicks has his team humming and in the premiership mix, with five wins from their past six games, but major challenges await. They have Sydney and Fremantle on the road, but also have almost certain wins over Essendon (Marvel Stadium) and Richmond (Adelaide Oval).

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Ninth.

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What we way: There is no reason why their spike under coach Steven King cannot continue. Geelong, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs await, while there will be an emotional reunion with Christian Petracca. The ex-Demon was injured and did not play when the two teams met earlier this season.

Best-case finish: Third. Worst-case finish: Ninth.

What we say: Are the Bulldogs for real? Defeats to Adelaide and Sydney in the past fortnight, and an unconvincing win over West Coast (which prompted coach Luke Beveridge to declare his team a “marginal side”) have raised questions. The Dogs have lived on the edge in recent seasons when it comes to missing or just making the finals, and there is no reason to think this season will be different.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 11th.

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What we say: It’s certainly a case of hot Pies – four wins on the trot for a team not long ago considered too old and slow. And we have a juicy one this week against the old enemy, Carlton. But with Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and the Lions to come, the Magpies face a tough run home. Just how Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom are managed (or tapped) will be a fascinating watch.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 14th.

The Cats have had arguably the toughest fixture through to round 17; now they have potentially the softest from round 18 onwards. They may need it now they are hurt, particularly if Jeremy Cameron were to miss the rest of the season. They have three games at the Cattery, against St Kilda, Essendon and Richmond, while Melbourne and Collingwood await at the MCG.

Best-case finish: Third. Worst-case finish: 11th.

What we say: For the Saints to show they have improved this season, they need to make at least the wildcard round, if not better. After a tough start to the year, they do not have to travel interstate again. What would set their campaign alight is if they could pinch victory in Geelong on Thursday night.

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: 14th.

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What we say: The Giants have been harder to read than James Joyce’s Finnegans Wake, and internally have been frustrated by their inability to take care of teams they feel they should beat. But they lift against tougher opponents, which is why they are in the battle for the wildcard round. The Bombers will be an easy kill; then comes a potentially season-defining home clash against the Swans.

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: 13th.

What we say: The dream run for Josh Fraser has ended, and now comes the potential for a brutal reality check for the Blues as they face one of the toughest runs home. As we stated earlier, it doesn’t get much better than a clash with the old enemy when both teams are in the finals hunt, while Brisbane and Fremantle also await.

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: 14th.

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What we say: It’s been a bitterly disappointing fortnight for the Kangaroos, who squandered opportunities against Port Adelaide and Collingwood to remain firmly in the pack, in the hunt for a wildcard berth. And it doesn’t get any easier – their remaining games are either against legitimate finals or premiership aspirants, all of whom sit inside the current top 10. The round-20 clash against the Saints shapes as a pivotal moment.

Best-case finish: Eighth. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: They are a train wreck. Coach Damien Hardwick has conceded the Suns’ season is all but over seven-straight losses – but there is still time, provided their vaunted midfield can have more of an impact than a pop gun. On paper, the Suns have a middling run home, although there are three interstate trips, against Carlton, GWS and St Kilda. There is also a trip down the highway to face the Lions.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

What we say: The Power are a mathematical chance but, realistically, their season is over, particularly after the serious ankle injury to Zak Butters. Up next are the Dockers (in Adelaide) and Brisbane (Gabba).

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

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More:

AFL 2026

Collingwood Magpies

Carlton Blues

Hawthorn Hawks

Fremantle Dockers

Sydney Swans

Brisbane Lions

Adelaide Crows

Analysis

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Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.Connect via X or email.

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