Animal instinct and maths boost Netherlands’ hopes of World Cup glory

THE FUTURE IS ORANGE

When Paul the Octopus sadly died at an aquarium in Germany in 2010, there was a massive void to fill in the World Cup prediction space. It seemed a huge ask to find a tipster on the same level as the eight-legged maverick one-off. Others tried but Leon the Porcupine, Anton the Tamarin and Petty the Pygmy Hippopotamus were all woefully wide of the mark; this was no golden generation of animal oracles. Things turned dark in 2018 when a new octopus, Rabio, appeared on the scene but was killed by a Japanese fisher despite the sea-dwelling savant getting it right with all three of the Samurai Blue’s group games.

The best of the rival bunch at World Cup 2010 was Mani the Parakeet. The Singapore-based budgie produced a clean sweep of winning tips in the quarters but then blew it in the final by selecting the Netherlands to beat Paul’s pick, Spain. There was only one winner. Predicting the Dutch to lift the World Cup has been an exercise in frustration after their defeats in the finals of 1974, 1978 and 2010. But could that all be about to change in 2026?

Joachim Klement is a German mathematician. And while not as big a household name in his field as Pierre de Fermat, Albert Einstein or Johnny Ball, he could be coming to a TikTok timeline near you if the Netherlands finally get it done this year. In an attempt to predict the outcome of the Geopolitics World Cup, Klement mixed together factors such as GDP per capita, population, football culture, Fifa rankings and good old-fashioned luck in his bubbling test tube and the smoke cleared to reveal the name of the Netherlands. Why should we listen? Because in 2014 his mathematical formula threw up Germany, in 2018 France and in 2022 Argentina. That’s the last three winners. Tick. Tick. Tick. Paul, up there in his Octopus’ Garden in the sky, would surely have raised a tentacle or two in appreciation.

Klement’s past record of success attracted a modicum of attention pre-tournament but when it was revealed that the Netherlands were his prediction for 2026, social media shrugged. An iffy defence, no world-class striker, the Eredivisie getting naffer, Arne Slot being hoofed into touch by Liverpool and a history of being nearly men meant Dutch football didn’t carry the same cool as before. And yet here we are. Despite being in one of the tougher looking groups, the Netherlands have powered to first place, racking up seven points and scoring 10 goals in the process. Joachim Klement could end up looking like a very clever man. Then again, his powers of prediction would surely be overshadowed if Brian Brobbey (three goals so far) goes on to finish as top scorer and it emerges that an ocelot in Peru had tipped him for the Golden Boot.

LIVE ON BIG WEBSITE

Just the six matches again to sate GWC fever, starting with Scott Murray’s minute-by-minute report of France 0-0 Norway MBM, plus Senegal 0-0 Iraq, courtesy of Daniel Gallan, as Group I concludes with a pair of 4pm EDT/9pm BST kick-offs. Group H will also be decided: Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia will be helmed by Beau Dure, while Tom Lutz will be watching the tackles fly in at Spain 1-0 Uruguay, and both games begin at 8pm EDT/1am BST. For Group G’s Pride match in Seattle, Egypt 2-1 Iran, Jonathan Howcroft has the controls, and Sam Lewis is your guide for New Zealand 1-2 Belgium. They’re both kicking off at 11pm EDT/5am BST.

ON THE BALL

Big Website’s app now features a special edition of On the Ball for the GWC. On the Ball: World Stage invites you to guess the World Cup player in five attempts – and it’s pretty tricky. You can have a go right now – and there are loads of other good puzzles to take up your time, too.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It couldn’t ​have been any clearer for him. He’s obviously thinking about something else, bless him. I love him at the moment, but dear me” – Graham Potter explains why Anthony Elanga collapsed ⁠on ​the ground in despair after Sweden’s 1-1 draw with Japan because the winger thought his nation had missed out on qualification. “He got a ‌little scolding from me there. He was a little frustrated at the end of the match and you can understand that now,” added Alexander Isak.

RECOMMENDED BUYING

We have some Football Weekly Live events coming, folks. If you want to see Max Rushden, Barry Glendenning and other top, top pod squad members in the flesh, you can do so in Dublin on 1 September or in that there London on 9 September. And on 16 July, Football Weekly: Live in New York City is sold out, but livestream tickets are still available.

double quotation markBig Website still has a lot of players ‘writing themselves into the history books’. Surely given the state of books (and history) we need to come up with a new term like ‘entered themselves at the datacentre’ or ‘input themselves into a field on a spreadsheet on the Opta supercomputer’?” – Michael Hill.

double quotation markGiven that the (somewhat logical) German words for semi-final, etc are worthy of a letter o’ the day (yesterday’s Football Daily letters), here by contrast are the somewhat odd Finnish terms. A final is an ‘end match’ (loppuottelu) but recently the boring ‘final’ (finaali) is often used. A semi-final is a välierä, where erä is round and väli is intermediate. So a rather vague ‘intermediate round’. So far so good, perhaps, but a quarter-final is a puolivälierä = a half välierä or in other words a ‘half intermediate round’. The round of 16 is then a ‘a quarter intermediate round’, a neljännesvälierä” – Mike Walsh.

If you have any, please send letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. Today’s prizeless letter o’ the day is … Michael Hill. Terms and conditions for our competitions, when we run them, are here.

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Ecstasy for Ecuador and a draw puts Australia through – it’s the latest episode of World Cup Daily.

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