Truth behind new AFL wildcard finals system — and how many wins you’ll need to make top 10

Let’s get one thing out of the way first: these aren’t real wildcards.

In tennis, wildcards are players invited to tournaments who wouldn’t or couldn’t otherwise qualify. And in American sports, wildcards are post-season qualifiers who didn’t win their division or conference.

Watch the 2026 AFL Pre-season AAMI Community Series LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

The AFL just has a top 10 now. The 10 best records make the finals and before the normal finals system begins, 7th will play 10th and 8th will play 9th.

The only realistic impact this will have on the season is making 7th and 8th even less likely to win the premiership.

If you want to look on the bright side, more teams will have some hope of making the finals deeper into the season – not good teams, but teams nonetheless – plus we’ll have two more finals to watch. We like watching finals!

The odds suggest a team that finishes 9th or 10th will win the flag roughly once per century … and even that seems generous.

It’ll make more sense once we expand to 20 teams, and we’re back to the modern norms of half the competition playing finals.

So, yes, it’s all a bit silly. But we also have to call it something, and sports fans know what you mean when you say ‘wildcard’. It is acceptable shorthand.

And now we need shorthand for how we discuss the finals.

For years, footy fans knew that 12 wins was roughly what you needed to make the eight.

But we now play an extra 23rd game each season. And combined with the expansion to a top 10, we need a new reference point.

How many wins should a team need to make the ten? (Jeez, that sounds weird.) And how many wins will you need to avoid playing in the wildcard round?

Let’s find out.

Get all the latest AFL news, highlights and analysis delivered straight to your inbox with Fox Sports Sportmail. Sign up now!!!

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

We’ve collected 13 seasons of data since the AFL went to 18 teams.

That includes the 2012-22 seasons when 22 games were played instead of 23, with the win totals pro-rated up to a 23-game season, but excludes 2020 because that shortened season is such an outlier.

Based on those seasons, we know that 13 wins is the average total needed to make the top eight, while the average 10th-place finisher won just under 11.5 games.

The average 11th-place team won just under 11 games, so we can pretty clearly see the benchmark here.

If you win at least 11 games, you’re a good chance of making the top 10 as a wildcard finalist, and more than 11 wins will almost always get you in.

We’d call 11 wins the new rule of thumb, roughly the equivalent of needing 12 wins in a 22-game season – it’s the goal, and with anything extra, you should be safe.

Meanwhile to crack the top six, and avoid the additional wildcard final, history says you need to win around 15 games.

Average wins for each ladder position (AFL 18-team era)

Includes 2012-25 excluding 2020, totals pro-rated to 23-game seasons

6th: 14.89 wins

7th: 13.77 wins

8th: 13 wins

9th: 12.25 wins

10th: 11.46 wins

11th: 10.95 wins

Watch The 2026 AAMI AFL Origin match LIVE on Kayo Sports | WA vs VIC Saturday 14 FEB from 7PM AEDT | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

WHAT THE PROJECTIONS SAY

By now, any true footy nerd knows the brilliant Wheelo Ratings website, and its proprietor Andrew Whelan has done some projections which can assist us here.

According to his simulations, a team winning 14 games in the 2026 season made the top six 57.8% of the time and was a wildcard team 42.1% of the time. (The missing 0.1% is presumably the Bulldogs getting even more screwed than they did in 2025.)

Between 12 and 13 wins, you’re most likely to be a wildcard team, though if you can win a 13th game you have some minor hope (17.8%) of sneaking into the top six.

Winning 11 games is likely, but not certain, to be enough to make the top 10 – just under 60 per cent in Whelan’s simulations.

This roughly matches what the historic data tell us. Effectively, 11 wins is the new 12 wins – the minimum requirement most years to take the last finals spot.

When we played a 22-game season, 12 wins usually got you into the top eight. Now with a 23-game season, 11 wins will usually get you into the top 10.

Of course weird things can still happen, like a team winning 14 games with a massive percentage and missing the top eight, but USUALLY …

FINALS PROBABILITY BY WINS (Chance of making top 10)

Per Wheelo Ratings’ simulations

9 wins: 2%

9.5 wins: 6.1%

10 wins: 18.1%

10.5 wins: 35.5%

11 wins: 59.6%

11.5 wins: 80.6%

12 wins: 92.1%

12.5 wins: 98%

13 wins: 99.5%

13.5+ wins: 100%

Both history and Whelan’s numbers both suggest you’ll need around 14 wins to make the top six and avoid playing an extra wildcard final.

So realistically, any team that doesn’t go 14-9 or better isn’t going to win the premiership.

CHANCE OF MAKING TOP SIX BASED ON WIN TOTAL

Per Wheelo Ratings’ simulations

12 wins: 1.9%

12.5 wins: 6.6%

13 wins: 17.8%

13.5 wins: 35.9%

14 wins: 57.8%

14.5 wins: 79.4%

15 wins: 90.8%

15.5 wins: 98%

16 wins: 99.4%

THE BOTTOM LINE

You need 11 wins to make the ten.

Just like the idea of needing 12 wins to make the eight, that’s not a definitive statement.

Sometimes you’ll miss out with 11 wins, and sometimes you’ll make it with 10 wins. But 11 to make the 10 is the new rule of thumb.

It’s a bit silly knowing we can expect some teams with a losing record to make the finals from now on. In fact, it should happen at least once every two seasons.

But at least if you win more games than you lose (12-11 or better), you’re almost certain to play finals.

And you need 14 wins to make the six.

Click here to read article