How your team is placed to make the top 10

July 27, 2026 — 3:30pm

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With four rounds remaining in the 2026 AFL home-and-away season, the sprint to September is officially on.

Fremantle have all but locked in top spot, but there is much to keep supporters interested in the chasing pack.

The Swans, Hawks and Lions are battling for second spot, while the remaining finals berths are open.

The Blues are back in the hunt, as are the Saints. The Magpies are on a roll. Can the Western Bulldogs rise?

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The introduction of the wildcard round – extending the number of clubs who can make finals from eight to 10 – has ensured more teams remain in the race at this point of the campaign.

We take a look at what awaits for your team. The best-case and worst-case scenarios are projections only.

What we say: The Dockers, led brilliantly by Murphy Reid, are almost a lock to finish on top of the ladder, giving themselves two home finals. But their final month will be challenging, ensuring they head into September battle-hardened. The Bulldogs are up next and, as we have said before, keep an eye on the round-24 clash against the Blues.

Best-case finish: First. Worst-case finish: First.

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What we say: The Swans rebounded well against the Giants (their seventh win in their past eight derbies), and do not face what we consider another major test before September. That’s a pity because earlier defeats to the Brisbane Lions, Fremantle and Adelaide prompted questions about their premiership aspirations. On form, they should win their final four games, and secure second spot.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.

What we say: We didn’t learn anything about the Hawks this weekend; their thumping of Essendon was not a surprise. We’ll back them to take care of North Melbourne, but then come two serious tests – a trip to Brisbane (hopefully, with Mitch Lewis back), and a follow-up clash against Collingwood. If the Swans stumble, the Hawks are ready to pounce.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.

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What we say: That’s seven wins on the trot for the Lions, which could well become eight when they face Carlton on Saturday night. They play the hapless Suns on their run home, but will likely need wins over Hawthorn and Collingwood if they are to open their finals campaign at the Gabba. Regardless, the double chance is there for the taking.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Fourth.

What we say: Crows great Taylor Walker summed it up best when he conceded post-match on Thursday his team had partially undone its good work of recent weeks by losing to the Magpies. “Stage fright” was how former coach-turned-commentator Adam Simpson put it. So much for our previous comment that the Crows were “roaring”. Regardless, banked wins over Essendon and Richmond await, before a stern test against the Dockers.

Best-case finish: Second. Worst-case finish: Sixth.

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What we say: The Demons were determined to put on a show on their return to Friday night lights; it didn’t work out that way. This may state the obvious, but if Kysaiah Pickett is contained, the Demons struggle. They were jittery with the ball. We stated they could even finish second or third, but that’s been re-rated to sixth. Now comes their first match against club great Christian Petracca.

Best-case finish: Sixth. Worst-case finish: Seventh.

What we say: The Bulldogs have won three straight, the latest an easy kill over Richmond, and a healthy percentage boost. While Marcus Bontempelli is the superstar, Ed Richards was brilliant, and Joel Freijah’s return to form was timely. Now comes a trip to Perth to face the Dockers. A strong performance – win or lose – can reinforce their premiership hopes, but a challenging run home awaits.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 11th.

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What we say: Having banked five consecutive wins over mid-table opponents, the Magpies made a statement after half-time over the Crows, led by the brilliant Nick Daicos. Their decision to take the game on more has opened up scoring opportunities, and they are prospering. So much for being too old and slow. But it doesn’t get any easier from here if a top-four finish is the goal.

Best-case finish: Fourth. Worst-case finish: 14th.

What we say: We were worried about the Cats and their injury issues last week. Typically, they responded in the best manner possible - with an emphatic win over a top-four hopeful. There is another injury concern this week – being Patrick Dangerfield – and another test in the surging Magpies. But there are at least three wins to come over the final month. The Cats are well-placed for another deep September run.

Best-case finish: Fifth. Worst-case finish: Eighth.

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What we say: We were strong in our criticism of the Saints last week after their failure in Geelong. Thanks to “Nasiah the messiah”, they finally fended off the Kangaroos on Sunday to be firmly in the mix for 10th spot, and their run home is relatively friendly. The Swans will be tough, but they won’t deserve to be alive come September if they cannot end the home-and-away campaign with three straight wins.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 13th.

What we say: The Blues remain in the hunt for the 10, rebounding well against the woeful Gold Coast. That win snapped a two-game skid, and leaves caretaker coach Josh Fraser with a whopping eight wins, so far. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh were awesome, and will need to sustain this form over the final month. Can they jag three wins from their final four games?

Best-case finish: Seventh. Worst-case finish: 14th.

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What we say: The baffling Giants are in a world of pain after another derby loss, leaving them one game outside the top 10. They can still feature in September, but probably need to win all four remaining games. They are capable of winning their next three, but the Crows could be a stretch. Last week’s loss to Essendon may haunt this team.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 14th.

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What we say: It’s been a disappointing month for the Kangaroos. A top-10 berth was within reach, but four consecutive defeats mean it’s more than likely it will be another September off for the men’s team at Arden St. Sunday was effectively an elimination final, and the Kangaroos failed against the Saints, forcing us to re-rate their standing. There’s every chance they end the season on an eight-game skid.

Best-case finish: 11th. Worst-case finish: 14th.

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What we say: The Suns are by far the biggest disappointment of the season, and have lost nine in a row. Coach Damien Hardwick says this could be the making of his team. We say a harsh review – and changes – await. The Suns are now two games adrift of the top-10, their season in tatters. In theory, they could still feature in the wildcard round, but they won’t.

Best-case finish: 10th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

What we say: It’s officially season over (in terms of finals) for the Power, but they can still shape the top 10, as their next three opponents have finals (or greater) ambitions. It’s tough to know what to expect from the Giants, so the Power could surprise. They should beat Essendon in the last round.

Best-case finish: 14th. Worst-case finish: 15th.

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Not in the running

West Coast

What we say: The Eagles may have been flat on Friday night, but are on the rise, and wouldn’t have been too disheartened by their loss to the Dockers, trailing by only eight points at half-time. As we have said for a few weeks, their best hope of another victory is against Richmond at the MCG this Sunday.

Essendon

What we say: The joy of victory over the Giants slipped away on Saturday when the Hawks delivered a sobering reality check. Still, all is not lost. The round 24 clash against the Power could be one to watch. Jordan Ridley continues to be a worry, spraining a foot against Hawthorn. The key defender has managed only seven appearances this year, after 10 in 2025 and nine in 2024.

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More:

AFL 2026

Analysis

Adelaide Crows

Brisbane Lions

Carlton Blues

Collingwood Magpies

Essendon Bombers

Fremantle Dockers

Hawthorn Hawks

Jon Pierik is a sports journalist at The Age. He covers AFL and has won awards for his cricket and basketball writing.Connect via X or email.

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