Resting chaos not over as top four decided; who gets last finals spot — Run Home

Just two rounds to go before the NRL finals kick off, and the battle for a top eight spot is on in earnest.

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While the top seven teams (Raiders, Storm, Bulldogs, Warriors, Broncos, Sharks and Panthers) are assured of playing extra football this season, eighth spot is still up for grabs.

The Roosters, Dolphins and Sea Eagles are all in contention for the last spot in the finals.

Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.

1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (42 points, +172)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 100%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 70.8%

Remaining games: Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)

Analysis: The Raiders beat the Panthers 20-16 in a golden point classic to keep them on top of the table. Canberra fans will be cheering hard for the Roosters in Round 26 as if the Storm lose a Raiders minor premiership becomes almost certain. However, the Raiders have to get past the Tigers and the Dolphins to ensure a first minor premiership since 1994. However, the Storm have a far more daunting run home, so the minor premiership is Canberra’s to lose.

2. MELBOURNE STORM (40 points, +258)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 100%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 29.2%

Remaining games: Roosters (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: The Storm are predicted to finish 2nd by the Fox Sports Lab after locking up a top two finish with a 20-14 win over the Bulldogs. A huge game against the Roosters next up would see their minor premiership percentage spike, especially if the Tigers or Dolphins do them a favour and beat the Raiders. Melbourne have a considerably better points differential than the Raiders, which gives them a big edge, but a terribly tough run home awaits. All of the teams left on Melbourne’s docket are finals bound. On the injury front, star fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen returns this week while Dally M winning half Jahrome Hughes isn’t likely back until Round 27 at the earliest.

3. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (36 points, +114)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 93.2%

Remaining games: Panthers (H), Sharks (H)

Analysis: The Bulldogs were much improved but their 20-14 loss to the Storm continued their late season form slump, which has seen them lose three of their last four games. The Bulldogs are now no chance of winning the minor premiership, which is a race in two. Canterbury need to win one more game to guarantee a top four finish, and they’ll be very much helped by the Panthers’ decision to rest 16 players. They then face a tough test against the Sharks heading into the finals.

4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (34 points, +26)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 57.1%

Remaining games: Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)

Analysis: It was hardly convincing and it was hardly the performance of a team who will make any noise in the finals, but the Warriors beat the Titans 32-18 to keep themselves in the top four. They have the softest draw out of any top eight contending team, which is why the Fox Lab has them favourites to collect 4th spot with the top three teams well clear of the rest of the chasing pack, but it remains to be seen if they have the class in key positions to make a deep finals run.

5. BRISBANE BRONCOS (32 points, +148)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 20.5%

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Storm (H)

Analysis: The Broncos thrashed the Knights 46-12 to move to within one win and one Warriors loss of the top four. Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt have stepped up big time in the absence of injured stars Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam. The Broncos can further increase their points differential in a clash with the Cowboys in Round 26, but will likely have to win their final round clash with the Storm, who may rest players, to cement a top four finish if the Warriors drop one of their remaining two games.

6. CRONULLA SHARKS (32 points, +67)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 26%

Remaining games: Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)

Analysis: Thrashed the Titans last week and with a bye upcoming as well as a game against the hapless Knights, a top eight finish for Cronulla is assured. If they can beat the Knights and the Dogs in Round 27, a top four spot is a very real possibility, especially if the Warriors and the Broncos lose one of their final two.

7. PENRITH PANTHERS (31 points, +111)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 3.2%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)

Analysis: The Panthers were cruising with nine straight wins, but their 20-16 loss to the Raiders was their second golden point heartbreak in as many weeks and they are now at long odds to finish in the top four. The game is such small margins, with Nathan Cleary’s field goal hitting the post and allowing the Raiders to run the length of the field in the craziest golden point finish ever. The Panthers now turn their attention to a blockbuster clash with the Bulldogs, with their main aim now to try and finish 5th or sixth to get a home final in week one, but if they want to go all the way for a fifth straight premiership, the Panthers will have to win every game from here on out.

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8. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (28 points, +72)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 64.2%

Remaining games: Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)

Analysis: The Roosters blew a golden chance at cementing their top eight finish with a 30-10 upset loss to the Eels that has them fighting the Sea Eagles and the Dolphins for the final position in the top eight. Trent Robinson’s side will be without Sam Walker due to concussion for their clash with the Storm, who they have an atrocious record against, before finishing their season against arch rivals the Rabbitohs, who would love to knock them out of the finals. The Roosters have to win both of their remaining fixtures to guarantee a finals berth or hope that other results go their way.

9. DOLPHINS (26 points, +81)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 31.5%

Remaining games: Titans (H), Raiders (H)

Analysis: Will they fall short of a maiden finals berth for the third straight season? Four weeks ago, that would have been hard to fathom, but since the Dolphins have dropped four of five including a 58-30 thumping by the struggling Sea Eagles last start. It has left their top eight hopes in limbo as the Roosters’ closed the massive points differential margin. After losing to the Broncos and Manly the Dolphins have dropped out of the eight and now must rely on winning their final two games and hoping other results go their way. Their next clash against the Titans is a chance to get back on track, but they will likely have to beat the Raiders in the final round and hope the Roosters slip up.

10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (26 points, +4)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 4.3%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The Sea Eagles finally showed some signs of life with a stirring 58-30 win over the Dolphins to keep their slim finals hopes alive. Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic starred in the win over the Dolphins, but they will need to keep winning big to improve their points differential against the Dragons and the Warriors in their final two games. Then they will need the Roosters and Dolphins to falter to secure a finals berth.

OFFICIALLY ELIMINATED FROM FINALS CONTENTION

11. WESTS TIGERS (24 points, -113)

Remaining games: Raiders (A), Titans (A)

Analysis: After bombing a late 28-16 lead over the Cowboys, the Tigers’ top eight hopes are now officially extinguished. North Queensland scored three tries in the space of just five minutes to snatch a 34-28 victory, and break the hearts of the Leichhardt Oval crowd. Still, the Tigers will be pleased with their finish to the season, given they won the last three wooden spoons. The Tigers will face a tough test against the ladder leading Raiders but will then finish with a very winnable game against the Titans.

12. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (23 points, -138)

Remaining games: Broncos (H), bye

Analysis: While the Cowboys are out of contention, their come-from-behind win over the Tigers at Leichhardt Oval will relieve the pressure somewhat on coach Todd Payten. North Queensland trailed 28-16 late in the clash, and scored three tries in the space of five minutes, through Semi Valemei, Braidon Burns and Jaxon Purdue to steal a 34-28 win. It comes after their comprehensive victory over the Knights in Round 24. The Cowboys have one game to go against arch rivals the Broncos and then finish their season with a bye.

13. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (22 points, -94)

Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)

Analysis: The Dragons had a horror night at the office against the Rabbitohs, suffering a 40-0 thumping where they conceded seven unanswered tries. They have the chance to bounce back against Manly and the Panthers in their last two games.

14. PARRAMATTA EELS (22 points, -136)

Remaining games: Warriors (A), Knights (H)

Analysis: A sensational showing from the Eels against the Roosters, recording a very impressive 30-10 upset win over a top eight side. They continue to improve under coach Jason Ryles. The Eels’ clash against the fourth placed Warriors will provide them with a test, but their last game against the Knights will be a very winnable one.

15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (22 points, -151)

Remaining games: bye, Roosters (A)

Analysis: A very strong finish to the season for the Rabbitohs, who have now won three straight games, including their 40-0 thrashing of the Dragons in Round 25 to lift themselves out of wooden spoon contention. Just the one game left for South Sydney. After their bye in Round 26, they will take on their fiercest of rivals in the Roosters in Round 27. The red and green faithful would love nothing more than to knock their arch enemies out of the finals.

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16. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18 points, -220)

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Eels (A)

Analysis: With the Rabbitohs four competition points clear of the Knights, only the Knights or Titans can collect the wooden spoon now. It’s been a tough run for the Knights, whose last win came back in Round 16 against the Dolphins. Adding insult to injury was last weekend’s 46-12 loss to the Broncos. Newcastle were outplayed from the word go and were thrashed. They will play the Sharks and the Eels and will likely start outsiders in both of those games.

17. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -201)

Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)

Analysis: The 32-18 loss to the Warriors was the last straw for Titans management, who have given coach Des Hasler his marching orders and he will depart at the end of the season. The Titans are a win behind the Knights and are warm favourites to collect this year’s wooden spoon. Looking ahead, there’s a tough run looming for Hasler’s side, who face the Dolphins and Tigers to close out their season.

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