Media Insider: Sky TV wins NRL and Warriors rights in new record deal

“Sky is confident the agreement reflects the value of this content to New Zealand audiences and to its business, continuing its disciplined, data-informed approach to content investment,” publicly listed Sky said in an NZX statement.

The agreement was conditional on shareholder approval at its annual shareholder meeting in November.

The new seven-year deal will take effect from the end of next season - it runs from 2028 to 2034.

Moloney told Media Insider that as well as all matches screening on Sky, the new deal would see a weekly NRL match, the State of Origin series and women’s NRL matches screen live-delayed (live kickoff, with advertising) on its free-to-air platform Three (TV3).

Sky’s deal is part of the record new broadcasting package across Australia and New Zealand, with Foxtel and Nine sharing the rights across the Tasman.

“It’s been incredibly intense, working long, long hours with my team. You can appreciate that while we’re an important partner, we’re a smaller partner in the overall scheme of things,” Moloney said.

“Australia’s obviously a very big market, and a very important market for the Australian Rugby League Commission.

“We’ve been working many hours to get here, but absolutely thrilled that we have.”

While the $A5.3b ($6.46b) deal is a record sum for broadcasting sports rights in Australia - eclipsing AFL (Australian Rules) - that’s not the same scenario in New Zealand.

Here, Sky pays about $85m a year for All Blacks and top rugby rights - some $24m more a year than the new NRL deal. That rugby deal runs until the end of 2030.

The league deal is a blow for TVNZ and its fledgling TVNZ+ subscription service, with Sky wrapping up rights to one of the hottest season-long tickets in town.

Sky also has long-term deals with rugby, cricket and overseas sports such as golf, Formula One and English Premier League football.

TVNZ has been enjoying ratings success with the Football World Cup. It also has NPC rugby rights, UFC and America’s Cup, but has been keen to land a season-long sport to help keep sports subscribers engaged and paying over a longer period.

‘Very attractive’ factors

Sky’s new rugby league deal covers NRL, NRLW, and State of Origin matches.

Moloney told Media Insider that the length of the deal - seven years - and its exclusivity were “very attractive” factors in Sky’s decision-making.

She said Sky had been “super disciplined” in its approach.

“Our board are very clear that we’re here to drive great margin and ensure we can deliver for shareholders ... we’ve remained steadfast in that with this approach.”

Moloney said having Three and ThreeNow - Sky acquired the free-to-air channel and streaming platform from Warner Bros Discovery last year - was a “game-changer”.

“When you think about the audiences on Three Now - they’re very young, diverse, female-skewing. It’s a huge growth opportunity. So the combination of that alongside what we can deliver with Sky Sport was compelling.”

On the potential of a 20th NRL team - and a possible second New Zealand team by 2030, Moloney said: “We think a 20th team could be of interest.”

“That said, with the Warriors performing as they are and the fandom around that, that certainly wasn’t determinative for us.”

In an official statement to the NZX, Moloney said she was “delighted”.

“The passion New Zealanders have for rugby league continues to grow, driven by a world-class competition and the incredible support behind the Warriors.”

She said Sky and the NRL had enjoyed a strong partnership for more than three decades.

“In recent years, we’ve built on that foundation by working together to grow the game, inspire the next generation of players and fans, and help rugby league continue to thrive.

“This new agreement gives us the opportunity to carry that momentum forward as we continue to bring this exciting coverage to Sky and Three audiences for years to come.”

Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys said: “We are delighted to extend our long-term partnership with Sky, who have been excellent partners in growing rugby league in New Zealand and bringing its biggest moments into the homes of millions of New Zealanders.”

NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo said: “Rugby league is thriving in New Zealand and Sky has played an important role in that growth. This partnership ensures fans can continue to enjoy premium coverage while helping us reach new audiences and grow the game even further.”

What does this mean for Sky customers?

A leading analyst last week predicted Sky Sport customers would likely face higher prices as the broadcaster battled for NRL rights against a re-energised TVNZ.

Forsyth Barr analyst Ben Crozier accurately predicted Sky was in the box seat to fend off TVNZ, with a considerably bigger war chest for the likes of NRL rights, while also having most other season-long sports tied up for multiple years.

“SKT [Sky TV] has a meaningfully larger content budget and has nearly all key sports rights locked up for multi-year periods, giving it a dominant market position and strong pricing power to pass on content cost inflation,” Crozier said in his research report.

Sky could increase customer prices “well ahead of CPI to recoup higher rights costs (ie, NRL renewal) and/or offset the negative mix shift away from Sky Box”.

Sky charges anywhere between $29.99 (for a day pass) to $549.99 (for an annual pass) for its Sky Sport Now streaming service, while Sky Sport TV packages are now $52 a month, around 10% more than customers were paying last year and up from $37.99 in February 2024.

Crozier said Sky had increased sports prices materially over recent years, “and we expect it can do the same over the next few years, considering its suite of sports rights is comfortably the largest in NZ”.

He questioned whether TVNZ could move from one-off events, such as the current Fifa World Cup, into season-long sports, “but its ambitions have increased the competitive tension in NZ sports rights”.

The signs were there earlier that Sky was in the box seat to win the rights - literally.

Moloney socialised with V’landys and Abdo in a corporate box area during the Warriors’ NRL match at Christchurch’s new Te Kaha stadium last month.

Today’s announcement of the new rights deal in Sydney was attended by V’landys, Abdo, Nine Entertainment chief executive Matt Stanton and Foxtel chief executive Patrick Delany.

Moloney is heading to Australia today.

Entertainment

While the battle for sports rights is heating up, Crozier believes Sky’s bigger challenge is in entertainment, with the loss of HBO Max content from Sky’s Neon streaming channel.

He is predicting Sky’s Neon revenue in the 2028 financial year will be about 40% lower than in 2026.

Offsetting that will be the big savings that Sky has made in paying for HBO Max content. Media Insider understands this could be anywhere between $20m-$30m a year, although Sky has not previously commented on those numbers.

With Sky confronting these myriad challenges – not to mention a deflated free-to-air television advertising market – Crozier still rates Sky as an “outperform” share.

According to Sky TV’s latest annual report, Neon subscription numbers sat at 259,409 in 2025 – up slightly on its 2024 numbers but down on the 318,000 subscribers in 2023.

Latest numbers will be reported in August, when Sky announces its annual results.

Crozier believes the real impact of losing HBO Max will come in the next two years.

“We believe subscribers and pricing for Neon will be under pressure over the next year, offsetting the content cost savings from no HBO content.

“We believe the loss of HBO content from SKT’s Neon platform ... will be more impactful than SKT is expecting.

“We revise our Neon revenue forecasts ~-15% lower, with FY28 Neon revenue now ~-40% lower than the 12 months to 1H26.

“SKT has signed rights deals with Paramount, BBC and Sony, and refreshed its Neon marketing to support the platform with no HBO content. We don’t believe this will be enough to stabilise Neon’s subscriber falls.”

Crozier says Sky can largely weather these storms, estimating ebitda to be back just 1 or 2% in the next two financial years. He reduced the target share price from $4 to $3.95 based on the lower earnings.

Sky TV shares were sitting at $3.34 early on Tuesday afternoon.

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