Kerry vs Mayo predictions

Best bets

Mayo to score under 22.5 points

5pts 8-11 BoyleSports

Sean O'Shea to score two or more two-pointers

2pts 6-4 Paddy Power

Gavin White to score over 1.5 points

1pt 23-10 BoyleSports

Gavin White to be named RTE man of the match

1pt 18-1 Paddy Power

All-Ireland Football Final predictions

Kerry vs Mayo predictions

3.30pm Sunday, RTE2 & BBC Two Northern Ireland

The stone-cold statistics tell a story, and it’s a particularly grim tale if you’re from Mayo.

Since the turn of the century, Mayo have been to eight All-Ireland finals and won none of them. Kerry have been in 15 finals since 2000 and won eight.

The vast majority of the Kingdom panel were present for the victories in 2022 and 2025 and played in the 2023 decider, too. It’s a vastly experienced outfit who will relish the lure of going back-to-back under manager Jack O’Connor and it’s hard to envisage any other outcome bar a Kerry victory.

Indeed, it is possible to argue that odds of 2-5 about them getting the job done in normal time are generous. Kerry have the edge in terms of experience, physicality, pace and kick-outs, not to mention Mayo’s 75-year drought without the Sam Maguire, which will weigh heavily on the young shoulders of the newbies as well as the ones who have been on the long slog, no matter what anyone tells you.

Mayo are trying to sprint before they can walk. It’s unlikely Andy Moran would have thought his side would be All-Ireland contenders in 2026, especially after Roscommon wiped the floor with them, but that’s where they have found themselves after a favourable run of fixtures and vast improvement in their play. A battle-hardened Kerry side could bring them back down to earth with a bang, though.

What is even more appealing than backing Kerry at 4-9 or to beat the four-point handicap, is backing Mayo to score no more than 22 points at 8-11. That looks a corking bet considering Kerry have not shipped a goal in their last three matches and their average concession in their seven championship games this summer is less than 18 points.

It is only natural to get sucked into Mayo’s heavy-metal style of football and point to the fact that they scored 3-23 against Louth. But the Wee County froze on the big stage and it was little more than a glorified friendly in the closing stages as Ryan O’Donoghue ran riot.

Mayo have reached an All-Ireland final without having to break sweat, whereas Kerry had to dig deep into their reserves to dust off a Dublin side who deserved so much more than a four-point defeat.

The fact of the matter is that Kerry escaped unscathed. They continue to win ugly and you get the impression that a huge performance is just around the corner.

Mayo will probably try to go man-to-man on the Kerry attack with Donnacha McHugh on the mercurial David Clifford, Enda Hession taking up his brother Paudie Clifford and Sam Callinan on Sean O’Shea, but it is difficult to see them winning any of those individual battles, never mind the collective one.

Kerry will defend as a unit and get big numbers back inside the arc, particularly when Mayo are playing into Hill 16. We now know that scoring two-pointers into that end of Croke Park is far more difficult than when shooting into the Canal End, so expect the Kingdom rearguard unit to frustrate O’Donoghue and Kobe McDonald by cutting out the space inside the arc on the Hill 16 side.

The new rules have obviously changed the game, but it is worth pointing out that Donegal didn’t get a goal in last year’s decider and, in six of the last seven finals, the losing side did not score a goal. Indeed, the beaten finalists have not scored more than one goal since Mayo netted three in their 4-15 to 3-5 loss to Kerry 20 years ago.

Kerry’s success story under the latest tenure of O’Connor may have been based on David Clifford and their attacking prowess, but it is their ability to defend as a unit on the big days and snuff out the opposition that digs the foundations for victory.

Jason Foley is the chief commander back there and the experience of Paul Murphy is crucial, too. Goalkeeper Shane Murphy has surprised some. His restarts have been superb, as has his shot-stopping, and while he may have appeared to be a downgrade on Shane Ryan at the start of the season, he has proved his doubters wrong.

Much has been written and said about the Clifford brothers and how they make Kerry tick, but one player going into the final under the radar is Gavin White and he could be a dark horse in the RTE man-of-the-match market at 18-1.

He got the coveted gong in last year’s All-Ireland final win over Donegal after kicking three points from wing-back. White is a big-game player who is coming to the boil nicely.

His surging runs from deep could expose some flaws in the Mayo defence and backing him to score at least two points at 23-10 looks a decent bet. One two-pointer would obviously seal that deal.

Speaking of two-pointers, odds of 6-4 about free-taker O’Shea getting two of them look big. He will surely have three or four frees from outside the arc during the 70 minutes alone, never mind his attempts from play.

Everything points to a Kerry win and it could just turn out to be a year or two too early in the development of Mayo. All-Ireland finals often aren’t the high-scoring shootouts many hope they will be due to the players being nervous and magnitude of the occasions, so under 22.5 Mayo points looks the safest play of all on the day.

Read this next:

To win just once? Mayo face down the might of Kerry as they bid to end 75 years of hurt

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