ATP Montreal Final Prediction

And then there were two.

After a fortnight of high intensity, some rain disruptions, and a very open field of play at ATP Montreal this year, we are down to the final, which will be an all-American showdown as defending champion Ben Shelton takes on surprise finalist Brandon Nakashima. As always, we here at LWOT will be breaking down and predicting the final for you, but who do you think will lift the title this year at the National Bank Open?

ATP Montreal Final Prediction

Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima

Head-to-head: Shelton 5-0 Nakashima

A surprise finalist at ATP Montreal this year, Brandon Nakashima’s road to the final did not come easy, as early in the tournament he had to overcome back-to-back, tightly contested three-set matches. From the quarterfinals onward, the American started to find his best level. After sweeping past Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinals, Nakashima produced one of his best performances of the year and managed to beat Rafael Jodar in the semifinals to make his first big final on the ATP Tour.

In the final, he will face Ben Shelton, a player he has played five times but is yet to record a single victory against. One of the most confusing things for Nakashima is that his matches with Shelton have been particularly competitive despite the one-sided head-to-head. Ten of the 12 sets these players have played have reached 5-5, yet Nakashima has won just one set across their five meetings. Shelton has consistently risen to the occasion under pressure, while Nakashima has struggled to do the same, converting just four of his 23 break points in this matchup so far.

This match will likely once again come down to whether Nakashima can convert his chances against a player who likes these conditions. When these two faced off at this tournament last year, albeit in Toronto, Nakashima produced his best performance against Shelton, winning the first set before ultimately losing in a tightly contested three-set match. Although Nakashima could not have much success against Shelton’s first serve, he did manage to target his second serve and take the initiative from the return.

As Nakashima’s return will be his biggest path to victory against a player who relies heavily on his serve, the slower conditions at ATP Montreal this year could benefit him by giving him more chances to prolong rallies. However, Shelton has arguably played his cleanest level of tennis throughout the season at this tournament. He is yet to drop a set despite facing formidable competition from players such as Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien.

Shelton is a player who relies heavily on confidence, and currently, he is on one of those runs where he looks like a legitimate Top 8 player in the world. Although his high-variance return game and vulnerable backhand can give Nakashima openings, Shelton is playing too comfortably to overlook here. He has also been in this position before, and I expect him to once again come out on top in the pressure situations in what could once again be a match that has some closely contested sets.

Prediction: Shelton in 2

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