Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions are looking for a rebound this Sunday after a pretty sound defeat at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. Prior to the start of the 2026 season, Week 3 against a New York Jets team that finished 3-14 last year looked like an easy win. But Aaron Glenn has the Jets inches away from a 2-0 start this year.

Is that start a mirage, or are the Jets truly a formidable foe this year? Let’s take a closer look in our Lions vs. Jets Week 3 preview and prediction. It’s “On Paper” time.

Note: This is the last week we’ll be using any 2025 data.

Lions pass offense (13th in DVOA) vs. Jets pass defense (4th)

2025 rankings: Lions pass offense (6th) vs. Jets pass defense (32nd)

Week 1 (Saints): 204 passing yards, 96.7 passer rating

Week 2 (Bills): 289 passing yards, 130.0 passer rating

It took a while for things to get going, but Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing offense finally looked like itself in the second half of the Bills game. Is that a legitimate data point or did the Bills play Detroit differently while up two or three scores? It’s a very fair question to ask, and one that probably will keep my confidence in this unit at “cautiously optimistic” until we get more information.

So far this year, the Lions rank:

22nd in yards per attempt (6.9)

Fifth in passer rating (113.2)

Fifth in dropback EPA (0.270)

10th in dropback success rate (49.4%)

I see no reason to believe this can’t be a top-10 passing attack yet again, although there was one significant step back last week: pass protection. Last week, the Bills produced 29 pressures, according to PFF, and four sacks on 42 dropbacks. Detroit now has the 27th ranked pass blocking grade by PFF, although they oddly rank eighth in ESPN’s pass block win rate.

The good news is that the biggest culprits of last week’s protection breakdowns were backups. Right tackle Larry Borom allowed 11 pressures vs. the Bills, and left guard Ben Bartch wasn’t far behind with six. Both of those players are expected to go back to the bench this week with Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany on track to return.

Week 1 (Titans): 127 passing yards allowed, 80.2 passer rating

Week 2 (Packers): 136 passing yards allowed, 91.9 passer rating

Last year, the Jets were an absolutely awful passing defense, ranking in the bottom 10 of most statistical categories, including passer rating allowed (110.9, 32nd), yards per attempt (7.5, 25th), dropback EPA (29th), and DVOA (32nd).

This year is off to a much more promising start, although they’ve done it against a Titans passing offense that was bottom three last year, and against a Packers team in the rain with no offensive line.

Still, the stats are impressive. The Jets pass defense ranks:

Second in yards per attempt (4.7)

12th in passer rating (85.8)

11th in dropback EPA (-0.051)

6th in dropback success rate (39.7%)

The highlight of their pass defense is their pass rush. Led by rookie and second overall pick David Bailey (2.0 sacks, eight pressures), the Jets have produced an 8.5% sack rate on dropbacks (fifth highest), despite the fact that their pressure rate is just 36.6% (16th). They’re selectively aggressive, sporting just a 23.9% blitz rate (23rd), but that jumps to 28.6% on third down (18th).

Their secondary is full of a rag-tag group, but 2025 third-round pick Azareye’h Thomas is playing quite well (77.2 PFF grade, eighth among CBs).

Player to watch: Bailey vs. Miller. Bailey has insane speed to deal with (4.50) and Miller is dealing with a knee injury. Not an ideal matchup for Detroit, but it’ll be a good, early test for both rookies.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Maybe I’m being too dismissive of the Jets after watching the Packers get run out of their own house against the Falcons, but I’m just not quite buying that significant of a turnaround for the Jets defense. They’ve yet to really be tested, while the Lions passing offense can be trusted after years of consistently top-10 play. Protection should be better this week, which should help Detroit get off to a faster start.

Lions run offense (4th) vs. Jets run defense (1st)

2025 rankings: Lions run offense (10th) vs. Jets run defense (16th)

Week 1 (Saints): 165 rushing yards, 5.0 YPC

Week 2 (Bills): 66 rushing yards, 3.3 YPC

I find it a bit odd that the Lions’ run offense DVOA is ranked so high because that isn’t matching any other statistical benchmarks. They currently rank:

10th in YPC (4.4)

15th in rush EPA (-0.133)

10th in rush success rate (43.6%)

Obviously last week was a significant step back, but Detroit was harmed by a beat-up offensive line and an abandonment of the game script when they were down 21-0 early in the game. The signs of a revamped rushing game are still there, but I’m still a bit skeptical of whether they’re truly a top-10 unit yet.

There are good signs—they rank 11th in yards before contact per carry and t-fourth in 10+ yard rushes—but there are also discouraging signs, like their third-highest “stuffed” rate (rushes that earn 0 or fewer yards).

Still, Jahmyr Gibbs is the ultimate equalizer, and he currently ranks fifth in rushing yards after contact (131).

Week 1 (Titans): 68 rushing yards allowed, 4.9 YPC

Week 2 (Packers): 63 rushing yards allowed, 3.5 YPC

Again, it feels like we have very little information to go off of here. The Jets have only allowed 131 rushing yards thus far (fewest), but they’ve also faced the fewest rushing attempts, in just 32. The Packers may have the worst rushing attack in football right now, and the Titans actually ran the ball fairly effectively against the Jets (+0.11 EPA/rush, sixth-best in Week 1), but only rushed 14 times.

So I’m more inclined to go off of last year’s numbers, which were pretty average:

21st in yards per carry allowed (4.4)

25th in rush EPA (-0.034)

17th in success rate (41.4%)

That said, the Jets made some significant offseason moves to improve upon that unit, including trading for 360-pound defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat and signing veteran linebacker Demario Davis. Both have made a significant and noticeable difference.

Player to watch: Sweat. Amongst interior defenders, Sweat ranks 19th with a 70.3 PFF run defense grade. That’ll be a serious test for Detroit’s up-and-down interior offensive line.

Advantage: Draw. My gut tells me the Lions could get things going again with a healthy offensive line, but there’s just not enough data for me to feel any level of confidence there. Both the Jets and Lions look improved from last year, but there’s enough noise in the early data for me to be skeptical.

Jets pass offense (8th) vs. Lions pass defense (19th)

2025 rankings: Jets pass offense (31st) vs. Lions pass defense (6th)

Week 1 (Titans): 215 passing yards, 104.0 passer rating

Week 2 (Packers): 218 passing yards, 90.2 passer rating

The Jets were not just the worst passing offense in football for the 2025 season, it was one of the worst attacks in years. Unfortunately for Lions fans, I’m not sure how much we can look into last year’s data. The Jets made changes at offensive coordinator, quarterback, and added a handful of weapons this offseason, and it’s off to a somewhat promising start.

It begins with Geno Smith, who is coming off a terrible year in Las Vegas, but has provided at least some stability in New York thus far. The Jets passing offense hasn’t been super explosive, but Smith has avoided the negative plays: no turnovers and just four sacks. So far, the Jets passing offense ranks:

15th in yards per attempt (7.1)

15th in passer rating (95.8)

Ninth in dropback EPA (0.205)

12th in success rate (48.1%)

The biggest key to the Jets’ success has been pass protection. They currently rank first in PFF pass blocking grade (77.4) and 13th in longest time to pressure (2.76). However, they still have the second-highest pressure rate (43.4%) because Smith hold onto the ball for a long time (2.97 seconds, seventh-longest).

The receiving corps is pretty shallow with Garrett Wilson leading the team in catches (11), yards (136) and touchdowns (1). Although Adonai Mitchell (nine catches, 123 yards) is a decent No. 2 who is currently dealing with a finger injury.

Week 1 (Saints): 378 passing yards allowed, 87.6 passer rating

Week 2 (Bills): 243 passing yards allowed, 121.4 passer rating

Time to face some hard truths. The Lions’ pass defense has been atrocious outside of the first two quarters of the season. Even with an absolutely dominant defensive performance against the Saints in the first half, the Lions pass defense still ranks:

19th in yards per attempt allowed (7.6)

21st in passer rating allowed (99.7)

24th in dropback EPA (0.243)

28th in dropback success rate (53.3%)

Is it possible these numbers look worse than they should because Josh Allen is an alien and Tyler Shough is really starting to put it together? Of course. But it’s also true that the Lions’ secondary was an absolute mess on Thursday and made Allen’s job far too easy.

Detroit’s PFF coverage grade ranks 26th in the NFL (51.0), and they’re giving up an average of 3.6 yards of separation per target (19th).

If there’s hope, it’s in their pressure packages. Through two weeks, the Lions have the second-most sacks (seven), fifth most pressures (41), and sixth-quickest time to pressure (2.51 seconds). Some is the result of a very aggressive gameplan (38.2% blitz rate, sixth), but they actually still rank pretty high in pressure metrics when not blitzing, too:

36.4 pressure rate (eighth)

2.58 average seconds to pressure (eighth)

Player to watch: Geno Smith. Perhaps the biggest change Smith brings to the Jets offense is his ability to test defenses deep. New York has only five passing plays of 20+ yards (t-22nd), but Smith has an arm and isn’t afraid to uncork it. Meanwhile, the Lions defense has given up 10 passing plays of 20+ yards (second most) and they’ve already allowed five completions of at least 20 air yards.

Advantage: Jets +0.5. I can’t in good faith give the Jets a huge advantage here because their passing offense just isn’t very explosive. But I do expect them to gets some yards underneath and potentially beat the Lions over the top with a big play or two—especially with the Lions down four of their top five safeties.

Jets run offense (13th) vs. Lions run defense (31st)

2025 rankings: Jets run offense (27th) vs. Lions run defense (19th)

Week 1 (Titans): 152 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC

Week 2 (Packers): 67 rushing yards, 2.5 YPC

If there was one thing the 2025 Jets could hang their hat on, it was a decent running game with a very good running back in Breece Hall. This year’s unit is off to an inconsistent start. Last week’s performance was certainly concerning for New York—especially after watching the Falcons run all over the Packers on Thursday night. But Hall was awesome in Week 1, rushing for 102 yard and 4.6 YPC.

Overall, the stats are mediocre:

28th in yards per carry (3.3)

25th in rush EPA (-0.238)

19th in rush success rate (36.7%)

Despite being a decent pass-protection unit, the Jets’ offensive line hasn’t measured up well in run blocking. New York ranks 25th in adjusted line yards and 24th in yards before contact per rush. However, they do rank seventh in run blocking grade (70.0) and 12th in ESPN’s run block win rate (75%). One big problem is their stuffed rate of 19.7%, the ninth highest in football.

Week 1 (Saints): 91 rushing yards allowed, 3.6 YPC

Week 2 (Bills): 203 rushing yards allowed, 5.6 YPC

Certainly not a promising start for the Lions’ run defense. While Week 1’s performance looks just fine, it’s worth pointing out the Saints managed just 65 rushing yards and 2.4 YPC against the Ravens last week. Detroit’s performance against the Bills was an unmitigated disaster. Again, you can credit the Bills for having an explosive offense, but they managed just 86 rushing yards in Week 1. It’s not looking great.

Detroit currently ranks:

25th in yards per carry allowed (4.8)

31st in rush EPA (0.151)

26th in success rate (46.2%)

It’s hard to have much confidence in this unit right now given how they finished last year, and how they’ve started this year. If there’s one thing they can hang their hat on, it’s their fifth-ranked yards after contact per rush allowed (1.99) suggesting sound tackling.

Player to watch: Jets left side of the offensive line vs. Lions’ defensive right side. The majority of the Jets’ damage is done behind left tackle Olu Fashanu and left guard Dylan Parham (PFF’s No. 1 run blocking guard). The Lions will need much better contain this week, especially with Smith still mobile.

Advantage: Jets +1. I believe the Jets will have an average-ish running game this year based on both last year’ s and this year’s data. And I don’t have a ton of faith in the Lions’ run defense right now, despite an improved front seven. New York is really going to lean into this matchup, so it will be extremely important for Detroit to lock things down. I believe they have the personnel to do it, but until they actually go out there and perform, it’s hard to put faith in them.

Last week’s prediction:

On Paper is off to a much more promising start than last year, going 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread. That said, there were some things I was wrong about. I thought the Lions’ running game could’ve gotten going against a sketchy Bills’ run defense, but I undervalued the offensive line injuries. Similarly, I called the Lions’ run defense a draw with the Bills’ rushing attack, and they got gashed in a way that sure felt like the end of last season. I’ve dropped some confidence in Detroit’s run defense because of that.

Still, I feel pretty good about my overall takes and my 34-24 prediction.

In the comment section, the appropriately named (but also spell-check required) Still got dem honolu blues came the closest to the actual score with an amazing prediction of 40-31.

Here is your prize—a message gifted mandated by Amon-Ra St. Brown:

This week’s prediction:

We come out with a draw between both teams. That’s a pretty uncomfortable place to be given this is a Lions team that is trying to contend for a Super Bowl and a Jets team just one year into a rebuild.

I am going to give the ultimate edge to the Lions here, and it’s for one very simple reason: the Lions have faced two teams who are—at the very least—playoff contenders. The Jets have faced two of the worst-looking teams in football so far this season. It’s very possible the Lions are better than they have looked so far, and the Jets are worse.

It’s admittedly an overly-simplistic way to tip the scales, but we don’t have much to work with here. If the Lions can keep Jared Goff clean and at least slow Breece Hall, they should win this game. Lions 24, Jets 20.

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