Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 19, 2026

What to make of Geelong in 2026? In Round 14, the Cats sat in third place and were a certainty in September calculations. Now, they’ve slipped out of the top eight, sitting ninth with just one win from their last six games. Their performances have been well below their lofty standards; however, they maintain the talent to remain in finals contention. After dropping a 39-point lead to lose to GWS, the Cats will be determined to respond, however, in the absence of Jeremy Cameron after a severe shoulder injury, Geelong will need an alternate route to goal.

St Kilda may be a few men down, but they have arguably presented their best form across the season of late. From Round 13 onwards, the Saints have lost just twice – once by two points against the Swans in an exceptional effort, and once to the Dogs rather disappointingly. Wins over GWS, Essendon and Port Adelaide have been very strong, holding off the Power to claim a crucial four points last week. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera plays his 100th game, giving his side a mental boost ahead of a crucial September shaper.

Where do we sit with both of these clubs? Tonight’s match will tell us everything. For the Cats, a win is absolutely crucial. Three losses on the trot, a response against decent opposition would silence the critics and reignite their charge towards the finals. For the Saints, losses at this stage of the season are as costly as it gets as they hold onto a Wildcard spot by the skin on their teeth. The loss of Cameron will be a difficult one to manage, but Geelong should find a way to get this done on home soil.

The Swans had the best team in the league on the ropes for the first half last week - before it blew up. Dean Cox’s outfit had kept Fremantle to just 11 behinds in the opening two terms, but they were unable to hold them at bay any longer. The Dockers piled on 15.10.(100) after the main break, while the Swans could only manage 6.4.(40) in the eventual 38-point loss. That was a second defeat in the past three for a side teetering in second spot.

The Crows destroyed the Suns by 79 points at home in Round 18, reminding the league that they must be taken seriously. It was a fifth win from their past six outings which has them poised in fifth spot – just percentage outside the coveted top four. Izak Rankine has rediscovered his mojo across the last few weeks, captain Jordan Dawson continues to lead from the front, and Sam Berry is getting his hands dirty. The Crows have a reasonable run home which sets up well for a late-season assault.

This promises to be a fair old game of footy. The Swans did have the wood over the Crows when winning six on the trot. However, that was blown up when Matthew Nicks’ travelling side pummelled the red and white by 90 points at the SCG last season. It’s highly unlikely we’ll see a similar blowout at the same venue tonight. The Crows must be given plenty of hope but the Swans are 8-0 at home in 2026. And they need a win to maintain their breathing space in second.

A Power midfield without Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis and Connor Rozee is daunting for Josh Carr and his men. Magnets will be moved all over the place and it provides great opportunity for those hungry for more midfield minutes to prove their wares. Add Mitch Georgiades’ absence and you really couldn’t pick a worse time to play Fremantle.

For Fremantle, a loss to GWS and goalless at half-time last week against Sydney and the win-streak seemed a distant memory. 100 points in a half later, and we were reminded why the Dockers remain raging premiership favourites. Both games at Adelaide Oval this season have been nail-bitters for Freo, with a two-point win over Adelaide and a six-point Collingwood win in Gather Round.

If they turn up in any way for this one, I can see them having a much more comfortable day out in the beautiful city of churches. Murphy Reid will be a problem for Port Adelaide’s makeshift midfield and Aliir Aliir will have his hands full controlling Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss.

With the suspension and injuries Port Adelaide have endured this week, a win here would be truly inspirational and unexpected. Fremantle come to Adelaide Oval with three wins in a row at the venue and one of their more impressive wins of the season last week. Confidence is high and now is not the time Justin Longmuir would want to tempt fate.

The Dockers will be rolling into this one full-steam ahead and mercilessly and even though the Power won’t roll over like some others in the bottom four, the absentees will prove too much to handle against this polished Fremantle side.

It feels like that somewhat from a potential finals perspective at 8-9 with an incredibly tough run home. With that in mind, if they want to make the 10, they’ll have to pick up a scalp or two.

The sample size is certainly big enough now around Melbourne to suggest that they’ll be a genuine threat come September. Entering the round 6th with an 11-6 record, the Dees are thrilling with ball in hand, with five of their last six wins coming by 30 or more points.

Looking at the two sides, it’s going to have to be something completely different from North to get the job done, given they haven’t picked up a real scalp in years. Melbourne should have too much firepower and speed on the ball for this North side, who is still shaky defensively, to handle.

After peaking too early in 2025, Craig McRae’s men appear to be saving their run in the back half of 2026. The Magpies found themselves in a close tussle with the Roos on Friday night. But just like their previous six AFL encounters this decade, Collingwood were on the winning side, seeing them maintain their perfect post-mid-season bye record. Having played 15th (Port Adelaide), 17th (Richmond), 14th (Gold Coast) and 13th (North Melbourne) in that time, the streak is hardly unexpected; however, you can only beat who’s in front of you. Collingwood will have Billy Frampton available for selection after his one-match suspension for rough conduct was downgraded to a fine. Isaac Quaynor will return from an ankle injury but Jeremy Howe (calf) will be rested.

For the first time in Josh Fraser’s head coaching career in the AFL, Carlton walk away empty-handed, seeing their seven-match win streak come to an end following a second-half shellacking by the Hawks on a miserable and wet Saturday night. The loss leaves them once again on the outside looking in, having slipped out of the Wildcard spots, which they'll hope is temporary. The Blues could see reigning best and fairest winner George Hewett return, with the midfielder being available for selection should he pass a fitness test.

With both teams in and around the Wildcard spots, it adds that little bit of extra tension to what is one of Australian football’s most historic rivalries. Carlton will be desperate to show that last week was merely a blip and remain a threat to snare a Wildcard spot. While Collingwood, on a winning streak of their own, are hopeful to claim their biggest scalp in this five-game run to see them closer to the top six. In recent times, the Magpies have gotten the better of the Blues, having won the last five matchups between the two. And with Collingwood’s form at the moment, particularly with their ball movement as noted by Champion Data’s Daniel Hoyne, it’s hard to see Carlton stopping them.

The Lions have hit form at the right time of year, winning each of their past five games in dominating fashion. This comes after they hit a flat spot from Round 10 to Round 12, losing three straight games, causing many pundits to question whether Brisbane had it in them to go complete the three-peat. But now we know the answer, they definitely do.

With the Lions’ injury list reduced to only two players, consisting of Darcy Gardiner and Jack Payne, they are primed to continue their elite form. With Will Ashcroft and Zac Bailey arguably in career-best form and Lachie Neale hitting his straps, this Brisbane outfit should be feared by every team in the AFL.

Conversely, the Eagles have only won three games this season, with their latest triumph coming in Round 12 against the Bombers. While their list is undeniably stacked with talent, they will be far too young and inconsistent to be competitive against the Lions.

Those numbers don’t overly bode well for a clash with Sam Mitchell’s Hawks who have scored 90 or more in five of their last six. They strangled Carlton in the wet last weekend and now have second spot in their sights - especially if Sydney drops points again.

Is it really curtains on the Gold Coast Suns season? After last week’s seventh loss in a row at the hands of Adelaide, Damien Hardwick appeared resigned to missing out on September action. Perhaps the giddy optimism about the Suns’ prospects early in the season was unwarranted, but there is still much to play for and a Wildcard spot is very much still in the conversation.

The Suns can ill-afford to lose this one at home. Maybe Dimma was playing mind games last week in declaring the season was over. We’ll know if that actually is the case by 6pm on Sunday.

It was predictably one-way traffic in Brisbane last week as the Lions of the ‘Gabbatoir’ sliced and diced the Bombers with brutal efficiency. Essendon rallied in the final quarter with seven goals and some solid passages of play from youngster Sullivan Robey but the damage was well and truly done. The Bombers simply could not transition the ball from their Defensive 50 to Attacking 50 and concerningly, many of their senior players went missing.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, GWS continue to do the opposite of what everyone expects from them. Down by 39 points into time on of the third quarter, one can only imagine that Adam Kingsley had some strong words to say at three-quarter time as the Giants stormed home to claim victory by 13 points.

The recruitment of Clayton Oliver appears to have been a masterstroke from the Giants as not only has Oliver filled the gap left by Tom Green who has missed the season, but he’s proven that he can still break games open just as he did for the Dees in their premiership year. Oliver will undoubtedly poll well in the Giants’ Best and Fairest and, pending the final few weeks of the season, may just be a smoky for All-Australian.

These two sides faced each other in Round 10 at Engie with the Giants 14-point winners in what would be the penultimate game for Brad Scott as Coach. This time around, Essendon will be bolstered with Jordan Ridley and Kyle Langford expected to return whilst Lachie Whitfield, Max Gruzewski and Finn Davis should all be available to return for GWS.

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