A title defence with plenty riding on it for Sabalenka

Mumbai: The year’s first hard court Grand Slam sprang up a rather surprising winner (Madison Keys) among women, followed by two champions on clay (Coco Gauff) and grass (Iga Swiatek) that weren’t exactly obvious favourites to go all the way on that surface. The US Open, though, has brought a semblance of familiarity of late in the often wild world of women’s tennis. Aryna Sabalenka during a practice session. (Getty Images via AFP)

The past three female champions in New York are the top three in the world rankings: No.1 Aryna Sabalenka (2024), No.2 Swiatek (2022) and No.3 Gauff (2023). It’s in this backdrop that Sabalenka arrives at Flushing Meadows with more than just a title defence riding on her.

As the holder of the throne, much of the spotlight will be on her to not only extend this familiarity at the US Open but also play her part in ensuring the trio takes the season’s last three Slams. More significantly for her, as the world No.1 all year without a major to show, she will be eager to pin her grip at the top with a season-ending Slam-winning sign-off.

The Belarusian stood one set away from starting the season with a title defence and a Slam, only for Keys to flip the script on the two-time Australian Open champion in the third-set shootoff. Sabalenka again stood one set away from a Slam at the French Open, only for Gauff to emerge from a set down this time in another three-setter.

A semi-final defeat at Wimbledon to Amanda Anisimova means if the US Open doesn’t play out to her best-case scenario, the most consistent Slam player of the last couple of years could end the season without one for the first time since 2022.

There’s also a worst-case scenario – of losing her reign at the top that has been unchallenged since October 21 last year. It could happen if Sabalenka doesn’t make the quarter-finals and either Swiatek or Gauff win the title.

That would, however, call for an upset of epic proportions, simply given that Sabalenka has made a habit of going into the second weeks of Slams.

In her last four appearances at Flushing Meadows, the 27-year-old has progressed from being a semi-finalist twice (2021, 2022) to a finalist (2023) to a champion. She has a 28-6 win-loss US Open record, the best win percentage among active female pros.

The last time she crashed out before the quarter-finals of any Slam was back at the 2022 French Open. This season, she’s won 17 matches in Slams, the joint-most with Wimbledon winner Swiatek. She’s hit 571 winners in the three Slams, by far the most (Swiatek is second with 440). She boasts a tour-leading 50-10 win-loss record with three titles this year so far, better than Swiatek’s 49-12 with two titles.

It’s hard to argue that Sabalenka has been the best female player through the year, yet without the Slam cherry that defines a tennis player’s cake.

It’s a unique paradoxical position to be in, perhaps mirroring Roger Federer’s in 2008. The Swiss legend had also lost two finals and one semi-final of the year’s three Slams as the world No.1 before finally going all the way at the US Open.

Sabalenka has the belief that she can do the same, having learnt the “really tough lessons” from those tight three-set defeats.

“The consistency is there. I’m just missing a little, little part,” said Sabalenka, who plays Swiss Rebeka Masarova first up.

“(The US Open) has always been my favorite Slam. I’m the defending champion, and I love being in this position. I hope those tough lessons are going to help me in this one.”

She will need all that help, for her draw isn’t the smoothest and her form in the second half of the season hasn’t been the brightest. Sabalenka hasn’t won a title after her Madrid triumph in May, even though she has made at least the quarter-finals of every tournament.

The last eight was also where she was stopped at Cincinnati this month in a straight-sets romp by Elena Rybakina, the 2022 Wimbledon champion who comes into the US Open with three semi-final shows and a potential threat in the draw.

The biggest threat to Sabalenka’s crown though could come from Swiatek. The Wimbledon and Cincinnati champion is in the midst of one of her trademark rolls where nothing and nobody appears equipped to come in her way.

Gauff, the home star who shone brightest in 2023 when she captured the US Open as a teen, is going through gloomy days. It has made the American press for a coaching shake-up while bringing in biomechanist Gavin MacMillan to fix her serving woes. MacMillan did the same for Sabalenka in the past. Gauff is taking a leaf out of Sabalenka’s book. Can Sabalenka take a leaf out of Federer’s?

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