Cheltenham tips: Best value bets for Paddy Power Gold Cup Saturday November 15

Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.

After tipping Arc de Triomphe winner Daryz at 14/1, Matt's running total (including Antepost Value Bet) from June 2020 to present stands at +222.96pts to advised stakes/prices.

Value Bet Tips: Saturday November 15

1.5pts e.w. Coming Up Easy in 2.20 Cheltenham at 11/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4)

1pt win C’Est Different in 3.30 Cheltenham at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, bet365)

1pt win Geryville in 3.43 Wetherby at 12/1 (General)

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Click here to back Coming Up Easy with Sky Bet at 11/1

Click here to back C’Est Different with Sky Bet at 16/1

Click here to back Geryville with Sky Bet at 12/1

After Friday’s incessant rain it’s no great surprise to see one or two horses trading places in the betting for Saturday’s feature Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase, the day-two card needing to pass an early inspection to get the go-ahead.

It is sometimes the case, when the going changes quite significantly after the initial time of declarations, that a clear divide appears based largely on whether the rain is considered to be a ‘positive’ or a ‘negative’ for certain runners, and that rather linear approach has happened to some degree but there’s still one horse who I think the market might have got wrong.

Step forward COMING UP EASY, Henry De Bromhead’s progressive seven-year-old who bolted up from the front when beating Dreal Deal by five and a half lengths to complete a hat-trick at Killarney in August.

Seeing as those three chase wins came on ground officially described as ‘good to yielding’, ‘yielding’ and ‘good to yielding’ again last time, the layers look to have taken a view that summer ground is something of a prerequisite for the horse, but I suspect that couldn’t be further from the truth as he looked right at home when breaking his maiden over hurdles on heavy going at Limerick in April 2024.

In addition, not only has Coming Up Easy’s sire Califet produced loads of high-class, soft-ground winners in France, Ireland and England including 2024 Midlands National (heavy) hero Beauport, he’s a half-brother to Rare Edition who also won on soft and, perhaps even more significantly, the ill-fated Pencilfulloflead who absolutely loved it when the mud was flying.

Pencilfulloflead carried on improving after his novice campaign and was third in the Thyestes off a mark of 150 so, given his age and currently trajectory, I’d be very surprised if Coming Up Easy has suddenly reached his ceiling with a revised rating of 142. On the contrary, that is in fact the very same mark he’s been given in Ireland too, so you could argue he’s a rare well-treated handicap chaser from across the Sea.

You’re going back a bit for the last Irish winner of the Paddy Power in 2009 but if the likes of De Bromhead, Gavin Cromwell and Paul Nolan continue to run horses in it then it’s another anomaly likely to be corrected sooner rather than later.

De Bromhead saddled last year’s third in Lets Go Champ, his only Paddy Power runner since his first attempt with the unplaced Loosen My Load in 2011, and the in-form trainer is obviously keen to have another pop at the prize as he’s also got the mare Theatre Native in it this year under Sean Bowen.

But it’s the mount of Darragh O’Keeffe – who is already odds-on to win the title in Ireland this season after a brilliant start – for me as his style of racing should be perfectly suited to the chase track on the Old Course and I feel he should be right among the favourites.

It could be a cracking day for the De Bromhead yard with July Flower looking quite an exciting prospect ahead of the Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase, while Dan Skelton’s Supremely West isn’t really a horse I’m keen on opposing in the From The Horses Mouth Podcast Handicap Hurdle, given his soft-ground form in the book for previous connections.

The other Cheltenham bet I am happy to recommend is C’EST DIFFERENT in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.

He’s got to race from 3lb out of the handicap but it looks highly significant that connections are prepared to come here for this decent prize on such terms given he could slot into a lower-grade race somewhere else, and the increasingly-confident Dylan Johnston still claims a very handy 3lb which is looking a bit of a gift at the moment.

This horse wasn’t quick enough to compete in his only bumper start on debut and needed to be upped to two miles, three and a half furlongs before opening his hurdling account at Carlisle in February.

That neatly coincided with his first run in a handicap and, after travelling like one miles ahead of their mark, he got the job done well, winning with much more in hand than the official margin of just three-quarters of a length.

Turned out five days later at Chepstow later that month, C’Est Different defied a penalty when justifying cramped odds of 4/7 and while he’s now running off 109 having initially been 92 when assessed on his two-mile form, there’s surely scope for lots more improvement with another summer on his back.

Testing conditions will be right up his street and the way that Sam Thomas’s horses have been running lately makes me a little bit surprised he’s not much shorter in the market.

There are a couple of races from Wetherby on the ITV programme too and I’m going to give another chance to GERYVILLE in the concluding Boyle Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Chase.

He looked very rusty when sent off a big price (28/1) on his return from a summer break here at the start of the month, but he usually takes a run or two to come good and would have found the lively surface too quick for him anyway.

Micky Hammond’s course regular ended up being beaten 40 lengths, with Brian Hughes appearing to accept his fate when the others quickened away three out, and the handicapper has dropped him a couple of pounds as a result.

The revised mark of 116 is 1lb lower than when claiming his second career course and distance win back in January and, importantly, the ground has come in his favour this weekend.

Published at 1600 GMT on 14/11/25

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