QB future for all 32 NFL teams: Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa among intriguing decisions ahead

Daniel Jones playing for a new contract with the Indianapolis Colts ranks among the top quarterback storylines heading into the back half of the 2025 NFL season. There are many others of interest, which makes this a good time to check in on all 32 quarterback situations.

As I usually do around this time of year, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks (plus a backup who has boosted his value) into buckets based on how their teams should feel about them, from “We have a top-five QB signed for the long term” at one end to “Five years ’til Canton” at the other.

I’ve included contract duration and average per-year salary rank (via Over the Cap), along with where each quarterback ranks in expected points added per pass play (via TruMedia) among the 40 with at least 70 pass attempts this season.

We have a top-five QB signed long term

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Signed through: 2031 | APY rank: T14 | EPA rank: 8

The Chiefs have reached the AFC title game all seven seasons Mahomes has been their starter, winning three of the five Super Bowls they have reached. Mahomes’ production is up this season over last. He is throwing the ball farther down the field and using his legs more frequently (36 scrambles, a career high through nine games).

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Signed through: 2030 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 5

The reigning MVP is producing about the same as he has in recent seasons. Even the Bills’ record (6-3) is the norm for Buffalo, which has been better than that twice in seven full seasons with Allen in the lineup. He has 69 more total touchdowns than turnovers over the past three seasons, the largest gap in the league.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Signed through: 2027 | APY rank: 10 | EPA rank: 7

The two-time MVP leads the league in passer rating (127.1), completing 70 percent of his attempts with 15 touchdowns and one interception. He has 80 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions over the past three seasons. The 6.7-to-1 ratio leads the league by far among 35 quarterbacks with at least 17 starts over that span (Joe Burrow is next with a 4-1 ratio: 60 TDs, 15 INTs). The Ravens discussed an extension with Jackson this offseason but did not reach a deal. He will enter 2026 with a cap hit of $74.5 million, the second-to-last year of his contract.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Signed through: 2029 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: N/A

The Bengals are 16-13 with Burrow in the lineup over the past three seasons, even though he has produced at a high level consistently while earning Tier 1 status from coaches and executives. Overcoming the Bengals’ leaky defense has been that difficult. Availability is the only concern for Burrow, who missed six games as a rookie, seven in 2023 and all but two this season. He returned to practice this week and will try to save Cincinnati’s season.

We have a top-five QB for the short term

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Signed through: 2026 | APY rank: 16 | EPA rank: 4

Stafford turns 38 in February and has had sometimes fraught contract negotiations in each of the past two offseasons, including once when the team let him explore trade opportunities. Concerns over his back issues during training camp dampened expectations entering this season, but Stafford has been available every week and is a leading MVP candidate with 25 touchdown passes and only two interceptions for the NFL’s fourth-ranked offense by EPA per play. Coaches and executives got it right when they voted him into Tier 1 for the first time in his career over the summer.

We are having a harder time convincing others that we have a top-five QB signed long term

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Signed through: 2029 | APY rank: 9 | EPA rank: 19

Coaches and executives voted Herbert into Tier 1 from 2022 to 2024, dropping him into Tier 2 this season in the absence of better team results, especially in the playoffs. One evaluator said this week he’d rather have Stafford than Herbert for the next two seasons because, in his view, Herbert has not shown the necessary refinement to belong in that top group. The Chargers are happy to have Herbert now and for the future.

We’re happy with our established franchise QB

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: T7 | EPA rank: 1

The Lions are tied with Philadelphia for the NFL’s best record (21-5) since signing Goff to an extension before last season. They rank second to Buffalo in offensive EPA per play since then and are fifth this season after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago. Even with Detroit experiencing coordinator turbulence, including head coach Dan Campbell taking over play calling last week, Goff leads the league in EPA per pass play this season.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Signed through: 2026 | APY rank: 19 | EPA rank: 15

Even with injuries slowing the Bucs this season, Tampa Bay’s offense with Mayfield in the lineup has been about as productive as it was over Tom Brady’s tenure with the team. That includes the same EPA per play (+0.4), a higher passer rating and a higher rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards.

Mayfield has been more than a productive quarterback for Tampa Bay. He’s also an emotional leader and clearly their best option for the future. With his three-year, $100 million deal expiring after 2026, he could be due for a substantial raise on a new contract this offseason.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 1 | EPA rank: 10

The Cowboys are 6-10-1 with Prescott in the lineup since they signed him to his latest extension before last season. That is mostly because only Jaxson Dart and Mac Jones have gotten worse support from their defenses among 34 qualifying quarterbacks over that span. For comparison, Burrow has an 11-8 starting record over that span while his defense has, on average, been just as bad (-8.3 EPA per start). (You can learn more about the Betrayal Index, a metric that was conceived to measure this dynamic, in the video below from last month.)

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 11 | EPA rank: 13

You won’t find Hurts among the stat leaders in passing on a team that leans into the ground game behind an elite offensive line. But in two Super Bowls, he has 525 yards passing, 142 yards rushing, seven total touchdowns, two turnovers and a 109.4 passer rating with one Lombardi Trophy hoisted. He ranks second to Russell Wilson in EPA per pass play in Super Bowls among the eight QBs with more than one Super Bowl start this century.

We can win with our guy, but how good is he?

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Signed through: 2030 | APY rank: T7 | EPA rank: 11

Purdy has played in only two games since signing his contract extension in the offseason. An injury ended his rookie season as well, so long-term durability could be a concern.

It’s almost too perfect that Purdy ranks 11th and backup Mac Jones ranks 12th in EPA per pass play this season. Coaches and executives think Purdy is better, but they also know the 49ers’ offense has been productive across a range of quarterbacks, including Jimmy Garoppolo.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 6

Love has 38 touchdown passes with 14 interceptions and the NFL’s sixth-best EPA per pass play (between Mahomes and Burrow) since signing his extension before last season. He’s the present and the future in Green Bay. This season has been bumpier than anticipated, with injuries affecting the line and some of Love’s top targets.

The Packers are 0-3 with Love in the lineup this season when Green Bay’s opponent failed to reach 17 points. NFL teams have won those games 88 percent of the time over the past five seasons (Love was 5-0 in them last season).

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Signed through: 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank: 29 | EPA rank: 16

Stroud and the Texans have won a playoff game in each of his two full seasons as the starter, but they fired their offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, after ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play last season. They rank 25th this season, continue to have O-line problems and are winning with a defense that ranks fifth. Stroud becomes eligible for a new contract after this season. How high should the Texans go?

Our veteran reclamation project is looking good

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Signed through: 2027 | APY rank: 18 | EPA rank: 2

Darnold has been even better for Seattle than he was during his breakout 2024 season with the Vikings. His sack rate is half what it was with Minnesota, while his yards per pass attempt (9.9) ranks second to 2000 Kurt Warner (10.0) among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts through the first nine games of a season since 1970, per Pro Football Reference. It’s looking like Seattle has found its long-term starter.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Signed through: 2025 | APY rank: 21 | EPA rank: 9

Jones is where Darnold was one season ago in terms of reviving his career in a better situation. The big difference for Jones is there is no first-round rookie the team could prefer for the future (as Minnesota did with J.J. McCarthy) and no first-round draft choice for the team to consider using on an alternative anytime soon. Jones is in prime position to earn an extension from the Colts. Both sides have leverage, but will either side use it?

All dressed up, no place to go

Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers

Signed through: 2026 | APY rank: 48 | EPA rank: 12

Jones is in a strange spot as a high-producing backup under contract through next season. The 49ers need him because Purdy has injury concerns. That makes a trade unlikely. Acquiring teams might also question whether they could get the production from Jones that 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is getting from him. The one season Darnold spent with San Francisco before succeeding in Minnesota could be instructive. Jones, like Darnold, was not in favorable situations before landing with the 49ers.

Hot stock: Buy!

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 28 | EPA rank: 3

Maye has the highest passer rating (116.9) through nine games for any qualifying second-year quarterback in NFL history, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger. Purdy, Carson Wentz and Jeff Garcia round out the top five, so let’s not order a gold jacket for Maye just yet, but all signs point to New England having found its successor to Brady.

Hot stock: Hold

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 27 | EPA rank: 21

Daniels’ rookie season was so impressive, he broke the record Stroud held for the highest debut by a second-year player in Quarterback Tiers. Also like Stroud, Daniels has regressed in his second season with a team whose roster issues came to the fore. He has missed games this season with three separate injuries: a sprained knee, a strained hamstring and a dislocated elbow on his non-throwing arm. There’s a chance he could return for Week 13.

Our opponents hope we stay the course

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Signed through: 2026 (team option for 2027) | APY rank: 26 | EPA rank: 36

Young has proven he’s better than he showed during his rookie season and first two games of 2024, but he hasn’t proven to be even an average starter from a production standpoint. Young is averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 39th out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 70 attempts this season and is similar to his 5.5 average as a rookie.

He becomes eligible for a contract extension after the season, but Carolina presumably will wait and consider its options. It’s looking like a long shot the Panthers will exercise their option for 2027 before the deadline in May.

Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

Signed through: 2027 | APY rank: 17 | EPA rank: 34

Smith did not forget how to play quarterback after leaving Seattle for Las Vegas. The situation with the Raiders is part of the issue. But he is 35 years old and struggling through the first year of a newly configured deal that runs through 2027 and pays him $58.5 million fully guaranteed. If the Raiders want to move on after one season, they would eat Smith’s $18.5 million guaranteed salary for 2026, unless they could find a team willing to trade

Justin Fields, New York Jets

Signed through: 2026 | APY rank: 20 | EPA rank: 31

The Jets’ decision to pay $30 million fully guaranteed to Fields was odd at the time and regrettable now. Fields owns the NFL’s highest sack rate (12.3 percent) for an offense with only 22 completions gaining more than 15 yards, which is tied for seventh-worst through nine games out of 830 teams since 2000. Those are among the reasons the Jets loaded up on first-round picks for the purposes of landing their next QB.

Financially stuck, but for how long?

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 6 | EPA rank: 24

The Dolphins’ contract with Tagovailoa carries $54 million fully guaranteed salary for 2026, which might have cost general manager Chris Grier his job while extending the runway for coach Mike McDaniel, who has brought out the best in the quarterback to this point, albeit with diminishing returns of late. It’s looking like coach and QB might get one more year to regain their past trajectories.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Signed through: 2030 | APY rank: T2 | EPA rank: 32

Lawrence ranks second to Prescott in annual average salary but 32nd in EPA per pass play, between Fields and Spencer Rattler, among 40 QBs with at least 200 attempts this season. His contract carries $37 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026, a figure that is high but would not necessarily prevent the Jaguars — led by a coach and GM who didn’t draft Lawrence or sign him to his extension — from heading in another direction.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 12 | EPA rank: 20

The Cardinals’ decision to live or die with Jacoby Brissett before placing Murray on injured reserve signaled the likely end for Murray under the current staff. What happens after this season remains unknown. Murray’s contract carries $38 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2026. Trading him would likely require the Cardinals to eat much of that salary.

Too early to say, but there’s been good with the bad

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 25 | EPA rank: 14

The marriage between Williams and new coach Ben Johnson remains in its early stages, with some positive signs. Williams has cut his sack rate from 10.8 percent as a rookie to 4.6 percent this season, a shift that belies the fact he is scrambling at the same rate, completing about the same percentage of his passes and holding the ball even longer (3.16 average time to throw or sack, up from 2.84 as a rookie). Johnson presumably would like Williams to work toward playing on time more consistently.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 40 | EPA rank: 22

The Broncos have won seven consecutive games with a mixture of defense and fourth-quarter heroics from Nix and the offense. It’s an unsustainable formula that is temporarily tabling more consequential discussions regarding Nix’s trajectory. The quarterback’s year-over-year efficiency has declined by almost every measure except for sack rate, which was already low. It’s looking like next season will be defining for Nix’s trajectory with the Broncos.

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Signed through: 2028 (team option for 2029) | APY rank: 42 | EPA rank: 17

Dart brought excitement and hope to the Giants’ offense while consistently putting his body at risk, as reflected in the four times he’s been tested for concussions since the preseason. Jameis Winston will start for the Giants against the Packers this week while Dart recovers from the concussion he suffered in Brian Daboll’s final game as head coach.

Way too early to pass lasting judgment, but so far, not so great

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 37 | EPA rank: 30

The Falcons are 4-1 in Penix’s starts when he completes at least 60 percent of his passes, compared to 0-6 in the rest of his games. The disparity highlights concerns with Penix’s accuracy and ability to put touch on his passes. Penix’s 58.8 percent completion rate this season ranks 35th out of 40 QBs with at least 70 attempts, ahead of only Dillon Gabriel, Davis Mills, Russell Wilson, Cam Ward and J.J. McCarthy.

How this season finishes could determine how much the Falcons need to protect themselves at the position in the future. (Atlanta’s 2026 first-round pick, which is on track to be a top-10 selection, belongs to the Rams.)

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Signed through: 2027 (team option for 2028) | APY rank: 38 | EPA rank: 39

It’s been a rough start for McCarthy under intense scrutiny after the Vikings did not bring back Darnold or Jones, who are both shining for winning teams elsewhere. In four starts, McCarthy ranks last among 40 qualifying QBs in completion rate and passer rating and 39th in EPA per pass play. He would land in the next category if the early returns were not so extreme. McCarthy is in a tough spot.

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

Signed through: 2028 (team option for 2029) | APY rank: 23 | EPA rank: 38

Ward has started every game for the Titans during a rough rookie season in which his coach relinquished play-calling duties after three games and lost his job three games after that. Tennessee has alternated firing its GM and head coach in four consecutive years, which could complicate Ward’s development and muddy his future.

Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 59 | EPA rank: 37

Gabriel has six total touchdowns with two turnovers and 17 sacks in five starts since taking over what might be the most cursed job in sports. He’s the seventh quarterback to make at least five starts for the Browns under coach Kevin Stefanski. Jacoby Brissett and Baker Mayfield are the only ones with passer ratings above 80 and positive EPA per pass play.

Even earlier than way too early to pass judgment

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Signed through: 2028 | APY rank: 51 | EPA rank: 27

Shough was efficient in his second career start, a 17-7 victory over Carolina in Week 10. He averaged 10.4 yards per attempt and completed 70 percent of his passes without a turnover. The final seven games will influence what his role is entering next season, with the Saints tracking toward a top pick in the 2026 draft.

Five years ’til Canton

Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Signed through: 2025 | APY rank: 22 | EPA rank: 26

Rodgers and the Steelers remain atop the AFC North, but their lead has shrunk to a single game after three losses in four games. Rodgers is coming off one of the worst statistical games of his career in a 25-10 loss to the Chargers. He’s still having his best season since leaving the Packers, but at age 41, this could be it.

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