2025 Fantasy Football: Weekly Winners - Week 1

Sport: NFL

This article series is my pride and joy every season. I take a look at the full slate of games for the week, dive deep into the matchup data, and identify players who can have a major week of production. Sometimes those names are obvious, and sometimes those names are deeper dart throws. In either case, I identify reasons to be higher on specific players than the general consensus view, and provide the context for why. There will always be hits and misses, but I will learn through the process with both outcomes. The “why” part will always be present with what I say. Last year felt like the tallies heavily outweighed the misses, but this is a brand-new year starting with a clean slate.

What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune in the 2025 season.

Since this is Week 1, the only reference points can be what happened last year and historically. We can use offseason transactions, injuries, coach speak, etc, to help support takes, but Week 1 tends to be the toughest because so much can change between seasons. So, for the sake of this article, I will reference last year’s Fantasy Points Per Game (PPG) allowed, along with the yards allowed by defenses. Once the season moves forward, we can use the same information, but from the current year.

I did not take time off as a content creator, and I pride myself in the work I put into the Fantasy Football world. Football is finally here. I hope this series gives you an edge in your Fantasy Football and DFS contests this year, and that you return weekly to read. Let’s catch some W’s together this year, because we “Play 2 Win”.

Fantasy Football Weekly Winners: Week 1

Jacksonville Stack vs. Carolina

2025 can be the Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Football breakout, and that starts in Week 1. The Jaguars will face the Panthers, who allowed the third most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks and were top 10 in passing yards allowed last season. TLaw played in nine full games last season, and in a third of those games, he finished with over 21 Fantasy Points. Brian Thomas Jr. had an elite rookie season in 2024, and 2025 second overall pick Travis Hunter can play a dynamic role. New Head Coach Liam Coen was the former Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator, so seeing Baker Mayfield thrive with Coen is encouraging for Lawrence.

Brenton Strange will fully take over the vacated Evan Engram role at tight end that he flashed in last year. I mentioned Carolina was top 10 in passing yards allowed last season, and they also allowed the second most Fantasy PPG to tight ends. Strange finished four weeks in 2024 as a top 10 Fantasy tight end, and with the uncertainty of the percentage Travis Hunter will play at wide receiver vs. corner, Strange could play a major role in 2025. I do believe Liam Coen will elevate this Jags offense, and Strange is lined up nicely to have a solid Week 1 for Fantasy Football and DFS.

Michael Penix Jr. vs. Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers finished 2024 as the fourth-best matchup in Fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks, and they also gave up the fourth most passing yards on the year. This is extremely encouraging for sophomore Michael Penix Jr., who enters the year as the starting quarterback. Through three starts last season, Penix averaged 33.33 passing attempts, which shows Atlanta was letting him sling it. Penix also averaged a productive 245.67 passing yards per game, and capped off the year with a 26-Fantasy-Point performance. The passing script in this matchup should be solid against Baker Mayfield and gang, so I expect there to be plenty of upside potential for Penix this week.

Austin Ekeler vs. New York

The Commanders’ unofficial depth chart listed Austin Ekeler at the top of it, despite the last handful of weeks of rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt hype post Brian Robinson Jr. trade. The Giants allowed the fourth most Fantasy PPG to running backs last year, and this was a matchup Ekeler was solid in. Week 2 against the NYG, Ekeler rushed eight times for 38 yards, caught three balls for 41 yards, and finished with 11.5 Fantasy Points. In their second matchup in Week 9, Ekeler rushed 11 times for 42 yards and a touchdown, caught three balls for 41 yards, and finished with 17.3 Fantasy Points. Ekeler finished three weeks with over 17 Fantasy Points last year and averaged 30.5 receiving yards through 12 games.

JK Dobbins vs. Tennessee

JK Dobbins started the 2024 season on fire for the Chargers with 135 then 131 rushing yard games with a touchdown in each. Dobbins can also start this season hot for the Broncos in Week 1. Dobbins played 12 games last season, with more than 45% of the snaps, and scored nine touchdowns in those games. The Broncos have a great defense, which will face a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start with limited solidified targets, which should create a positive rushing game script. Rookie RJ Harvey should factor in plenty this season, but all signs have suggested Dobbins will open the season as the lead rusher. I think he punches one in this week as well against a Titans defense that was a Top 10 matchup in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs last season, and also gave up the seventh most total rushing yards.

Derrick Henry vs. Buffalo

Every single person who rosters Derrick Henry for Fantasy Football is playing Derrick Henry weekly. So you can call this a confidence plug or maybe an entry very useful for DFS, but Henry owned the Bills last year. In Week 4 last year, Henry rushed 24 times for 199 yards and a touchdown, caught three balls for 10 yards with a receiving touchdown, and scored a season-high 35.9 Fantasy Points. Then, later in the Divisional Round loss to Buffalo, Henry rushed 16 times for 84 yards and a touchdown. 1,921 rushing yards in 2024 was Henry’s highest since 2020, and ranked second in the NFL. 18 total touchdowns tied a career-high for King Henry, and ranked second for running backs. The Bills allowed the third-most Fantasy PPG to running backs last year.

Tetairoa McMillan vs. Jacksonville

Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey both opened up 2024 as Top 20 Fantasy wide receivers in their NFL debut, and I think Tetairoa McMillan can follow suit in 2025. McMillan produced over 1,300 receiving yards in back-to-back Arizona seasons before being selected eighth overall by the Panthers in 2025. McMillan has the DNA of an Alpha WR1, and that is just what he will be in Carolina, which got rid of Adam Thielen and now has Jalen Coker placed on the IR. McMillan faces a Jaguars defense that was a top 10 Fantasy matchup in PPG allowed to wide receivers last year, and also allowed the most passing yards last season. Bryce Young looked like a different quarterback in the second half of last season and now has a true #1 target for 2025.

Matthew Golden vs. Detroit

The Packers notoriously do not select wide receivers in the first round of the NFL Draft, but changed that pattern in 2025 by selecting Matthew Golden out of Texas. Golden finished with 987 receiving yards (17 yards per catch) through 16 games in 2024, and profiles as a guy who makes plenty of highlight reel catches. Golden will open up his NFL career against a Lions defense that allowed the second-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and allowed the third-most passing yards last season. Jayden Reed is fighting through a Jones fracture in his foot, and with no clear WR1, it will be vital for Jordan Love to get his rookie wide receiver going in Week 1 with such a huge conference game on the line. Love threw for 273 yards in one of the two Lions matchups last year.

Joshua Palmer vs. Baltimore

I want to get in the habit of digging deep for some sort of hot take that is backed by context. In Week 1, that is Joshua Palmer, who could be a sneaky FLEX dart-throw. Khalil Shakir is coming off an ankle issue, Keon Coleman had a quiet rookie season, Gabe Davis is in town, but we have been here before, and then there is “Most Exciting Newcomer on Offense” camp award winner Joshua Palmer. Palmer has averaged 15+ yards per catch the last two seasons, and can turn into a solidified option for Josh Allen down the field, especially in a game he might have to try to make some big plays against a solid Ravens offense. The Ravens allowed the second-most passing yards and the third-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers last year, so the potential positive matchup on top of the potential positive passing game script could mean a surprise day for Palmer. Palmer has been impressing in camp and can continue to impress in his new home in Week 1.

DJ Moore vs. Minnesota

Last season, the Vikings allowed the most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers and the fifth most passing yards. In the two games the Bears played against the Vikings in 2024, DJ Moore had a 100% catch-rate, catching all seven targets for 106 yards in Week 12, then catching all eight targets in Week 15 for 46 yards (with 24 rushing yards). 26.9 and 15 fantasy point weeks against the Vikings for DJ last season. Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards in one of those two matchups as well (Week 12). I believe in this Ben Johnson offense, and while I do believe the ball will get spread plenty this year, I also believe that in a crucial conference game, DJ Moore will be the most reliable target for Caleb.

David Njoku vs. Cincinnati

Last year, the Bengals were the best tight end matchup in Fantasy PPG allowed and also allowed the 12th most total passing yards. In Week 7 last season, David Njoku caught 10 of his 14 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown for 23.6 Fantasy Points. Then in Njoku’s second matchup against the Bengals, he caught eight of his 10 targets for 66 yards, which was 14.6 Fantasy Points. So on top of balling out twice against the Bengals last year, via Statmuse, David Njoku has had 30 catches for 390 yards and scored four touchdowns in five games with Joe Flacco in his career. The boxes checked here, on top of Njoku averaging 13.5 and 12.6 Fantasy PPG the last two seasons, is extremely appealing.

Hunter Henry vs. Las Vegas

The Raiders ranked third in Fantasy PPG allowed to tight ends last year. Hunter Henry led the Patriots last season in both targets and receiving yards, finishing as the TE12 for Fantasy Football (which nobody talks about). Henry had five weeks with over 13 Fantasy Points, which shows some upside there. Stefon Diggs is coming off of an injury, and we do not know his health percentage. Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams could step u,p but that is unknown…. the safest option for Drake Maye in Week 1 is likely Hunter Henry in a good matchup, who has the safest role.

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