Six Pack of college football picks, predictions: Florida vs. LSU, Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in spotlight

In last week's Six Pack, I told you how sloppy early season play had led to unders cashing at a ridiculous rate (57.6%) through the first week of the season, finishing an average of 5.07 points below the closing total. I also told you not to count on that being the case in Week 2.

Well, if we counted that prediction with my picks, I'd have gone 5-2 last week instead of 4-2, because the over bounced back in a big way. The over went 76-57 last week, cashing at a nearly identical rate (57.1%) as the unders had prior. However, the average game finished only 1.88 points above the listed total. Why? Because the books adjusted.

The average total for games in Week 0 and Week 1 was 53.43. In Week 2, it dropped to 52.45. Not enough to make up the entire gap, but enough to serve as another reminder that just because something worked one week doesn't mean it'll work the next. The books are always adjusting based on what happened, and we can't approach things any differently.

All you can do is take the information available to you, sift through the noise, and see if you can find something reliable to count on. Then cross your fingers and hope you get lucky, and continue to do so.

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David Cobb

Games of the Week

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee: Are Tennessee fans spiking the ball too early? I certainly understand the impulse to do so based on what they've seen through two games. Joey Aguilar has played well for the Vols, while Nico Iamaleava has struggled at UCLA. However, not everything is always as it seems. I've seen talk on social media about how Aguilar gets the ball out in 2.57 seconds compared to Nico needing 2.99 last year, and how this shows Aguilar is a much better processor of information. What that ignores is Iamaleava averaged over 10 air yards per attempt last season, while Aguilar is at 8.8. The Vols offense isn't taking the same deep shots as last season when there was a bit more trust in both the offensive line and the QB's arm strength.

We also should not ignore that the Vols have played Syracuse and Eastern Tennessee State. Syracuse narrowly avoided a loss at home to UConn last week, folks. It might stink stink.

None of this should be taken as me saying Aguilar isn't good and the early-season results have been a mirage. What it should be taken as is me saying "I don't know yet." We will certainly know a lot more after the weekend, because the Georgia team coming to Neyland Stadium this week has a defense that's vastly superior to any Tennessee has seen so far. Will the Joey Aguilar with a career Whoopsy Daisy Rate -- (Interceptions+Fumbles/Snaps) -- of 2.77% at Appalachian State return, or will we see the same guy who has a WDR of 0.81% so far in Knoxville?

Further complicating matters for the Vols is their injury report. Tennessee will be without its starting cornerbacks and could be missing starters on the interior of its defensive line. Gunner Stockton and the Georgia offense haven't done anything to calm the fears of the fan base through two games, but I never know how seriously to take Georgia's games against cupcakes. My gut tells me the Georgia offense will lean on its ground game and hope to exploit matchups against a banged-up secondary when it can, and then count on its defense to stifle Tennessee. I think the Dawgs can do it. Even on the road. The Pick: Georgia -3.5 (-110) at DraftKings

No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame: Speaking of teams I don't feel like I know a lot about, we've got a huge game in South Bend Saturday night. Notre Dame has not played since its Week 1 loss to Miami. What I saw in that game wasn't promising. Notre Dame's offensive line was overwhelmed by Miami's pass rush, which put freshman CJ Carr into tough spots. Sometimes he wriggled out of them and made magic happen. Most times, he did not. Defensively, the Irish were banged up in the secondary, and Miami took advantage of it multiple times. The defensive line got very little pressure on Carson Beck. We can write that off as Miami having a great offensive line and a great defensive line, but the problem is that Texas A&M might have a great offensive line, too.

If the Irish pass rush is as ineffective this week (it ranks 133rd nationally with a pressure rate of 18.8%), how will the secondary hold up against an Aggies team that has seriously upgraded the receiver position with Mario Craver and KC Concepcion? I have questions about how well the Aggies' offense will perform because it's played two awful defenses to start, and even if I have concerns about the Irish overall, those concerns are centered more on Notre Dame's hopes of returning to the College Football Playoff, not whether they're better than UTSA or Utah State.

I also wonder if we'll see A&M lean more into its rushing attack in this matchup than it has so far this season. So I have questions about A&M's offense that make me hesitant to take the Aggies now that the spread has crept below 7 points. What I'm most confident in is that, win or lose, I don't expect the Irish offense to score a lot of points here. Even at home, I don't expect them to put the onus of responsibility on Carr's shoulders, and I do think they'll try to get Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price going on the ground. The Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Under 27.5 (-105) at DraftKings

Lock of the Week

No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern: We're going back to the well because this line feels just as wrong as last week's Oregon line against Oklahoma State did. I know this game is on the road, but it's not like Northwestern has some incredible homefield advantage at their temporary stadium along Lake Michigan. Even though Northwestern coach David Braun is smart enough not to complain about how much money Oregon has to give the Ducks motivational fuel, I don't think Braun has the horses to compete with the Ducks, either.

Oregon looks just as dangerous and explosive this year as it did the last few years. Whether or not that level holds up against the better teams on the schedule remains to be seen, but I don't consider Northwestern to be much better than the Oklahoma State team the Ducks just beat by 66 points. Defensively, the Wildcats have looked alright, but they've played Tulane and Western Illinois, and Western Illinois is a bad FCS team. They lost to Tulane. Meanwhile, the offense has not impressed me at all. Sure, it looked better against Western Illinois, but it would've been hard to look worse than it did against Tulane. Like last week's game, I won't be surprised if Oregon is covering by halftime. The Pick: Oregon -27.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Under of the Week

Florida at No. 3 LSU: LSU is ranked in the top 3 after a 2-0 start, thanks primarily to its win over Clemson to start the season. That all makes plenty of sense, particularly if you haven't paid close attention. If you have looked deeper, you'll know that the Clemson team LSU beat needed to come back from a 16-0 deficit against Troy last week. You also know that LSU only managed to put up 23 points against Louisiana Tech last week. Now, some of that was due to a vanilla game plan, as LSU knew it had much bigger fish to fry this week. The concern is that a lot of the issues we saw with LSU's offensive line against Clemson were still issues against Louisiana Tech, and, ladies and gentlemen, Louisiana Tech's defensive front isn't in the same stratosphere as Clemson's.

Nor is it on an even playing field with Florida's. Like, we can have all the fun we want at Billy Napier and Florida's expense for last week's loss to South Florida, but that loss sure as hell wasn't on the defense. The fact of the matter is, the two defenses in this game have been far and away the best aspects for both teams. LSU has completely flipped the script on that side of the ball, as they look terrific. Their portal additions look to be hits across the board. Garrett Nussmeier has played well in less-than-ideal situations, and that's why I think LSU should win more often than not, particularly at home. But the one thing I'm most certain about is that both these offenses are likely to struggle to find a solid footing on Saturday. The Pick: Under 48.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Pumpkin of the Week

No. 18 South Florida at No. 5 Miami: South Florida is the story of the early season. The Bulls are the only team in the country with two wins over ranked opponents, but this Cinderella story is very likely to turn back into a pumpkin this weekend. You can't argue with the results, but the process has not been something I consider sustainable. The Bulls rank 75th nationally in points per drive at 2.17, 116th in offensive success rate at 36.7%, and 94th in EPA per play at -0.01. Meanwhile, the average length of their touchdowns this season has been an astounding 31.4 yards per score.

They have been the very definition of boom-or-bust, and there is far too much bust between the booms. Particularly in this matchup, where I firmly believe Miami's defensive line can overwhelm the Bulls' offensive line, and that Miami's offensive line will have its way with the Bulls' front seven. It's been a great start, and South Florida is firmly in the driver's seat when it comes to the G6 auto bid if they win the American. But they don't have to win this game to win the American, and I don't expect they'll come close to doing so. The Pick: Miami -17.5 (-105) at FanDuel

Upset of the Week

Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss: I'm sure Ole Miss backers everywhere appreciate Lane Kiffin's postgame apology for allowing Kentucky to get a backdoor cover last week. What worried me about the performance was how Kentucky's offense performed at the same (bad) level against the Rebels as it did Toledo the week prior. That's not a good sign. I'm also concerned about Austin Simmons' turnover-prone tendencies through two games, and the fact he had to be helped off the field at one point late in the game. Kiffin says he could've gone back in had they taped his ankle if he needed to. That's good, but that means Simmons may not be at full health this week.

Meanwhile, Arkansas' offense has looked phenomenal in two games against bad opponents. Taylen Green is balling, and while I don't expect the Razorbacks to look as good against Ole Miss, I do think they'll still look good enough. The total in this game is at 60.5, and I can see why, because this could prove to be a tennis match. In a game likely to go back-and-forth, I see value in the team with what I feel is the better quarterback getting a generous price. The Pick: Arkansas (+225) at DraftKings

BetsLast WeekSeasonUnits

Games of the Week

1-1

3-1

+0.90

Lock of the Week

1-0

1-1

-0.14

Upset of the Week1-01-1+0.93

Overall

4-2

7-5

+2.52

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