ATP US Open Best Bets Including Tiafoe vs Shelton

The 2026 ATP US Open tournament continues with the semifinals at the Billie Jean King USTA National Tennis Center. The headlines will flow to Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton, with the winner guaranteed to make his first Major final. We will talk plenty about that match below. As big as that match is, we have to acknowledge that this tournament has been an amazing streak of good luck for Alexander Zverev. He played poorly in the first two rounds but was able to survive. If he had faced especially dangerous threats in the third and fourth rounds, he might not have been able to get here to the semis, but he did not face a single terrifying opponent. Alejandro Tabilo is a good player, but not an elite one (third round). Luciano Darderi fits the same basic description (Round of 16). Then Zverev played Botic Van De Zandschulp in the quarterfinals after the Dutchman played a Round of 16 match which lasted over five hours. Van De Zandschulp had very little in the tank. He played a strong second set but couldn’t win it. He faded in the third and Zverev (whom we had at minus-6 games against the spread) cashed easily.

Now, in the US Open semifinals, Zverev gets Karen Khachanov, a perfectly good player but not an elite one, much like the past few opponents Zverev has faced. Is Zverev the favorite to win the title, or should the Tiafoe-Shelton winner be viewed as the player with the inside track to the trophy on Sunday? We will see which two players will punch their ticket to the final. LWOS has our best bets for two matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.

ATP US Open

Alexander Zverev – Karen Khachanov: 15:15 EST

H2H: 6-3

This ATP US Open match clearly favors one player. Alexander Zverev could make his third straight Major final this year. Keep in mind that if he had held serve against Carlos Alcaraz back in January, he would be in position to make all four Major finals this year. He has had a lucky draw, as we noted above, but the thing about today’s version of Alexander Zverev is that while he will never be expected to beat Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, or Novak Djokovic when it really counts, he’s very good about beating everyone else. Karen Khachanov has never made a Major final. It’s up to him to prove he can stay close to Zverev.

Best Bet to Make

Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.

Parlay/hedge options: Zverev -4.5 games at 1.64 at @betfair, Zverev -1.5 sets at 1.47 at @1xbet, Khachanov +2.5 sets at 1.65 at @10bet

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.

This ATP US Open match is simply not priced favorably for bettors. Zverev -1.5 sets just doesn’t have a good price. It can’t be our main bet. Zverev game spread isn’t priced in an attractive way. It’s not a good match to bet on, so we put in a lot of parlay legs and ultimately think Khachanov can avoid a blowout. This is a match where you might want to watch a few games and then think of a live-betting angle.

That being said, betting on Khachanov +6.5 games is the best bet you can make.

Value bet/ the best odds: Khachanov +6.5 games at 1.62 at @betsson

Frances Tiafoe – Ben Shelton: 19:15 EST

H2H: 1-3

This ATP US Open match will produce a first-time Major finalist. It will produce an African-American US Open finalist. It’s a match which has everyone in New York buzzing. Frances Tiafoe is playing in his third US Open semifinal. He has been able to thrive at this tournament despite not doing much of anything at the other four Majors. He came back from two sets and a break down to beat Alex Michelsen in the quarterfinals. Michelsen served for the match in the third set. He led 3-0 in the fifth set. Tiafoe fought back every time.

Ben Shelton won a five-set epic against Carlos Alcaraz, who finally looked like a player who had taken several months off and was rusty. Shelton relentlessly came at Alcaraz with his big game. His backhand was able to hold up well in the match. Shelton lost a very tough first-set tiebreaker but was able to bounce right back and win the next two sets. Shelton finally showed the toughness he needs to be great. He has the shots and the athleticism, but the Alcaraz match, which ended at 3:33 a.m. in New York, showed he could battle on the big stage against a great player.

Best Bet to Make

Parlay/hedge options: Tiafoe +5.5 games at 1.58 at @unibet, Tiafoe +2.5 sets at 1.42 at @unibet

Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 6 – you could bet two thirds of a unit on this match.

This ATP US Open match doesn’t feel like a lock. Tiafoe has been here before and could certainly play an inspired match, maybe swiping a tiebreaker and winning in four or five sets. That’s possible. However, the lean has to go to Shelton, who just beat Carlos Alcaraz and therefore has to be very confident about his tennis and his mindset. Shelton needed five sets to beat Alcaraz. He probably can beat Tiafoe in only four. Don’t expect a straight-set match, but Shelton not needing the full five feels like a probable outcome given how well he is playing. If you beat Alcaraz at a Major, you’re doing something right. Shelton has earned the benefit of the doubt more than Tiafoe has.

That being said, betting on Shelton -1.5 sets is the best bet you can make

Value bet/ the best odds: Shelton -1.5 sets at 1.69 @1xbet

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