‘Sacrifice’ skipper must make to avoid disaster; ‘spy’ who can stop brutal finals ‘field day’— Blowtorch

Adelaide will be desperate to avoid a straight sets finals exit when they take on Hawthorn on Thursday night, but there’s one man standing into their way who “ripped them to shreds” the last time the two sides met.

So how do the Crows combat Hawks star Jai Newcombe? And can the Lions replace two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale and claim their biggest-ever QClash win?

Every club’s burning question ahead of Round 24, as well as the commentators for every Fox Footy game, in our ultimate weekly preview: The Blowtorch!

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AFL FINALS WEEK 2

ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN

Friday September 12, 7.40pm at Adelaide Oval

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6.30pm on Channel 504, with Garry Lyon, Jonathan Brown, Nathan Buckley, Jordan Lewis, Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Jason Dunstall, Mark Ricciuto, Eddie Betts and Jon Ralph.

Crows’ burning question: Who stops Jai Newcombe?

The biggest obstacle standing in Adelaide’s way of a preliminary final is Hawk Jai Newcombe, according to Fox Footy’s experts. Saints great Nick Dal Santo believes the Hawks mid is “built for September” while two-time premiership winner David King says it will be up to the Crows to make a big sacrifice – send in skipper Jordan Dawson. “This guy needs to take responsibility for Jai Newcombe who is the one guy from the Hawks who can separate this game,” he said on First Crack Preview. “Newcombe last time ripped them to shreds. He had a field day … this is the guy you’ve got to worry about.

They just can’t cope with his size and his ability to shrug tackle and step through. If this happens again and they match up with (Jake) Soligo or (Sam) Berry … good night nurse! He knows that he’s got those guys covered.”

King said Dawson needed to sacrifice his own game to shut down Newcombe. “They’ve got to say ‘Hey captain, this is your time. This is your ball’,” King said. “As soon as Dawson went to Newcombe, he couldn’t handle his size and his physicality. Dawson has a way of moving him, twisting him, pushing him into the contest and then having some fun … Don’t get beaten by what you know. I’m saying to the captain, ‘it’s time to put your hand up and say give me Newcombe. I’ll take him, you guys worry about the rest and get the job done’. All roads lead to Newcombe in this midfield.”

Hawks’ burning question: Can Hawthorn cash in on the Crows slow game?

In last week’s qualifying final, Adelaide went long down the line nine times – and while none of them resulted in a score, they were then next to score just 22 per cent of the time. And that stat should be music to Hawthorn’s ears. “Adelaide … they are not scoring from their back half. This is a part of that,” two-time premiership Roo David King said of the stat. “They’ve got the talls, but they don’t really seem to have the speed at ground level or the hardness last weekend to cope. That’s a serious gap in the game right there.” The Hawks meantime, went long five times with an 80% success rate as next to score. “If they go at something close to that … they win,” King said.

One player Saints great Nick Dal Santo says to watch is Hawk Jack Ginnivan. The former Magpie was a central focus when the Hawks touched down at Adelaide Airport, and he’ll be a focus on the field on Friday night. “I think we’re starting to see that more (his footy IQ),” Dal Santo said on AFL Tonight. “He got dropped earlier this year … let’s not forget that. We saw what he did at Collingwood – I think we all secretly like him, but he agitates us because he carries on, and he gets on the nerves of the opposition. But that’s what football is – we’re in the entertainment industry. The theatre is there, the provoking of the opposition, the antics after a goal. But what we’ve seen is his maturity on the back half of the year. He is working it looks harder than he ever has before. Ball in hand, he’s creative. He makes really good decisions as well. He’s been a big improver this year for their front half.”

BRISBANE v GOLD COAST

Saturday September 13, 7.35pm at the Gabba

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6.30pm on Channel 504, with Sarah Jones, Jason Dunstall, Leigh Matthews, Jonathan Brown, Dwayne Russell, Mark Howard, David King, Alastair Lynch and Jon Ralph.

Lions’ burning question: How do they replace Lachie Neale (and still stop Rowell and Anderson)?

He’s Brisbane’s two-time Brownlow Medallist who is going to leave a glaring absence in their midfield, so how do the Lions cover the loss of injured star Lachie Neale? “He is quite possibly the best inside midfielder. He’s not the Patrick Cripps size, but he’s tough, he’s inside, he’s got creative hands,” Saints great Nick Dal Santo said. “I think they’ll have to make a positional change to fill his role with multiple people – I don’t think one person can do it. Maybe it’s a move from a half forward – maybe it’s Cam Rayner has to play a little bit more midfield.” Fox Footy’s David King said Chris Fagan would be “robbing Peter to pay Paul” in a move to cover the absence of Neale. “The question for Chris Fagan, does he put more of a (Zac) Bailey who has been in there in recent weeks or a Rayner? Or does he go the other way and maybe go with some defensive bodies – does Jarrod Berry go in and tag? Do they try and clamp down on the boys that are running riot for the Gold Coast Suns,” Leigh Montagna added.

Not only will the Lions have to make a sacrifice to cover the loss of Neale, but King has urged Brisbane to make another sacrifice – this time a wingman to cover the dynamic ability of Suns duo Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. “If he finishes with 10+ this week (score involvements), they win,” King said of Anderson. “All their damage is at stoppage. I think they’ve (Brisbane) got to sacrifice a wingman – for me, that’s Darcy Wilmot. The Ashcroft boys can’t defend for their lives … I think you’ve got to dedicate a spy role. Dedicate a wing and just have him waiting if it’s Rowell or Anderson stepping forward. If those two light up, this is over. As soon as you hear the words, we’re going to trust our system – get nervous! Because it means Rowell and Anderson are going to have a field day.”

Suns’ burning question: Can Sam Collins’ red-hot form roll on?

We know all the praise has been directed at Gold Coast’s midfield … but there’s one player standing so tall in the back half of their season that he’s risen to the best ranked in the competition – and that’s defender Sam Collins. “We know premierships are won off the back of your defence,” Leigh Montagna said on First Crack Preview. “At the right time late in the season, this defence is starting to really stand up and stack up with the very best in the competition. Their numbers are as good as any team. They are not allowing the opposition to mark the ball inside the defensive 50, they are not allowing the opposition to win ground ball which is making it really hard for teams to score. There’s one man that is the pillar to all this and that is Sam Collins. He is in as good a form as any key defender in the competition, particularly over the last eight to nine weeks. He is now the number one rated key defender in the competition over the course of the whole season. When you take a look at his numbers, he probably still goes under the radar. He’s second in the comp for intercept possessions – only Sam Taylor slightly above. Intercept marks again second in the competition to Sam Taylor.”

Montagna said the Lions would need a plan to combat the Collins brick wall the Suns have put up. “It’s just going to be interesting for the Brisbane Lions if they can work around Sam Collins. We know everyone talks about going to work around (Lion) Harris Andrews, I think Brisbane have to find a way to work around Sam Collins. A lot is going to fall on his shoulders (Logan Morris) but if he gets the Sam Collins match up, it’s going to be tough for a young man to shoulder the load in the forward line.” Stats show since Round 20, the Suns are ranked best in the AFL for opposition marks inside 50 and third for both points against and opposition scores per inside 50.

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