College football Week 3 best bets: Will Darian Mensah put up a big game against his former team?
“Sometimes it’s best to be lucky” sums up last week’s best bets from my College Football Projection Model. The model churned out a winning week, but the way that two of the winners got home was impressive.Louisville and Syracuse, both favorites, somehow managed to cover by the hook (the final half-point of a spread) in games that I wasn’t even sure they were going to win. So yeah, it pays to be lucky. If there is a lesson, though, it’s that both games won by the hook, but if you didn’t bet them at the number that I bet during publish, you either pushed or lost. Even my worst price to bet would have gone 1-0-1 but the closing line would have gone 0-1-1. I say it every week, but getting the best of the number is vital to long-term success.Last week’s record: 3-2, +0.80 unitsSeason record: 5-4, +0.60 units, 6.0% ROIFive bets to kick off Week 3, and at least three that are a half-point off from getting onto the card, so stay tuned there. Hopefully we can have a big week, but I’ll settle for a modest winning one like last week. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!College football Week 3 best betsColorado +4.5 (-110) at HoustonI don’t like this bet one bit, but the numbers are what they are. I think Houston is improved and Colorado is trending down, but this is a bit too much for my taste. This seems like a buy-low spot on Colorado and a sell-high spot on Houston. My numbers actually have this game closer to a pick ’em, so getting 4.5 is a must-buy.Worst price to bet: Colorado +4 (-110)Arkansas at Ole Miss under 61.5 (-110)Well, both of these teams like to play at a lightning pace and have scored 50-plus points in three of the four games they’ve played so far this season. Arkansas hasn’t played anybody good yet, and Ole Miss played Kentucky in their only game against solid competition. The total points in that game ended up being 53. I’m not saying we will see this game go into the low 50s, but I’m not as scared of the pace if I believe you’re going to struggle to find consistent offense down to down.Worst price to bet: Under 61 (-110)South Alabama at Auburn under 55.5 (-115)Maybe I’m overrating the Auburn defense, but I think South Alabama is going to have loads of problems in this matchup. I also have an edge on Auburn against the spread here, but don’t really care to get involved in such a big spread. Similarly to the game above, South Alabama will want to play at a fast pace, but it doesn’t matter too much when you’re not able to move the ball. My only worry here is Auburn scoring a ton, but with two consecutive ranked road games on deck to precede a stretch of four ranked opponents in five weeks, I think they’ll want to get in and out with a clean bill of health.Worst price to bet: Under 54.5 (-110)Western Michigan at Illinois over 50.5 (-110)The pace won’t be anything to get excited about here, but I think Western Michigan will play faster than expected. Last week against North Texas, the Broncos played incredibly slowly, but they were in the lead for the majority of the game. They’ll likely be trailing in this matchup, and their pace will likely match closer to their game against Michigan State. They’ll still need to find a way to move the ball, but my number on this total is in the mid-50s.Worst price to bet: Over 51 (-110)Duke at Tulane under 54.5 (-105)BetMGM is giving us the best price in the market by a considerable margin here, so I’ll gladly scoop this up. Tulane is good, but I think the Duke defense will have a talent advantage to slow them down and keep this a lower-scoring game. Sure, some will say Duke quarterback Darian Mensah will want to put up a big game against his former team, but I’m not buying into that narrative. Let’s keep the fireworks to a minimum here, please.Worst price to bet: Under 52.5 (-110)New bets added FridaySouth Carolina -3 (-110) vs. VanderbiltWorst price to bet: South Carolina -3 (-115)(Photo of Darian Mensah: Lance King / Getty Images)
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