Monday Cal-culations: Freo's half-hour of power, Pies need a spark, Ken's legacy

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey looks at Justin Longmuir's finest moment, Essendon's first off-season priority and the pressure building at Arden St

Justin Longmuir and Caleb Serong; Jordan De Goey; and Ken Hinkley. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at football's dual truths, the unsigned stars at the Bulldogs and Geelong's crowd numbers in Monday Cal-culations

FREO'S MOMENT EXPOSES DOGS

THIS was Justin Longmuir's finest hour. Or half-hour, to be specific.

After the Western Bulldogs' fast start at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, Longmuir could have been forgiven for thinking back to the Dockers' most recent trip to the Docklands ground.

That was in round eight, when St Kilda mauled the Dockers, kept them to their lowest score of the season (5.3) and heaped all sorts of pressure on Longmuir. Remember that employment agreement?

After that, the Dockers won 11 of their next 13 games to set up Sunday's pseudo elimination final against the Dogs and their second quarter will be long remembered by Fremantle fans.

Josh Treacy celebrates a goal during Fremantle's clash with the Western Bulldogs in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

The Dockers' seven-goal-to-none onslaught was their ticket to September and was built on the back of a young core that should be leading the Dockers for years to come. Jye Amiss kicked two of his three goals, Murphy Reid set them up and booted one himself on the way to a Rising Star-confirming game and Josh Treacy, Luke Jackson and Patrick Voss each kicked one for the term. Throw in another from star recruit Shai Bolton and the list management tapestry of rookies, first-round picks and key signings delivered for the Dockers.

Longmuir isolated the Dogs' susceptible defenders and made them pay, beating the Dogs at their own game on their own deck, and relied less on midfield duo Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong than usual to light the fire. Captain Alex Pearce was fantastic in defence in quietening Dogs matchwinner Sam Darcy.

In his sixth season as coach, Longmuir will steer the Dockers into his second finals series and with a home final booked, Fremantle has the confidence, exuberance and quality to go deep. They will host either Gold Coast or Hawthorn in the first week of finals.

The Bulldogs had the same belief before the Dockers' blitz. They will spend the next three days hoping for a miracle whilst ruing another missed chance.

Western Bulldogs players after their loss to Fremantle in R24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Barring Essendon producing an all-time upset win against Gold Coast on Wednesday night which, with their injury absences, is impossible to see happening, the Dogs will miss the top-eight. That will mean they have won finals in only one season since their magical 2016 run, those three wins coming in 2021 when they made it to the Grand Final from outside the top four before being demolished in the second half by Melbourne.

In that time they have lost four elimination finals and not made the top eight in three (and now likely four) other years. 2016 is a distant memory.

Like the Dockers' strong form against top-eight teams throughout the season stacking up when it mattered, the Dogs' woes against the best also became fact on the biggest stage too. As did their glaring list hole, with the Dockers quartet of talls picking apart the Bulldogs' back half.

The Bulldogs chased Tom Barrass last year before he chose the Hawks and are this year in the fight for Jack Silvagni as a free agent. They clearly know what Sunday showed.

WILL THE PIE PLAN WORK?

JORDAN De Goey has been here before. Collingwood is relying on him doing it again.

The facts tell the story – De Goey is a supreme finals performer. In 167 home and away games for the Pies, De Goey averages 10.9 AFL Player Ratings points. In 13 finals, he averages 13.7 points. By the numbers, he is a 25 per cent better performer in September.

Craig McRae might need him to be more than that if Collingwood is going to take its charge for a flag to a preliminary or Grand Final. That will begin against Adelaide in what will be an emotion-charged qualifying final at Adelaide Oval.

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The plan to get De Goey back this year has been careful in the hope the 2023 premiership star could recreate his finals heroics and add to the Pies' charge. But Collingwood's flat form – five losses from their past seven games – has added extra importance on De Goey's shoulders.

And following his return to the line-up from his Achilles injury, and then training concussion, McRae has quickly leant on De Goey the midfielder.

From rounds two to eight this year, De Goey was playing 68 per cent of his time as a forward and 32 per cent as a midfielder. But in the past four weeks, the magnet has been flipped, with De Goey playing 61 per cent of time as a midfielder.

Against Melbourne he gathered a season-high 26 disposals, kicked a goal, had six clearances and looked back to his fresh, powerful best.

KEN'S BIG FAREWELL

IT FELT right that Ken Hinkley left the coaches box at three-quarter time of his final game and spent the last quarter on the interchange bench.

Hinkley has always been a players' coach – a communicator, believer, orator and relationships-first leader – and sitting alongside his charges was how he wanted to end his 13-year stint at the Power.

Sentimentality isn't huge for Hinkley. Certainly it wouldn't have taken long to pack up his office this weekend. AFL.com.au interviewed Hinkley this summer for the Your Coach series and his Alberton Oval base isn't covered in more than a decade's worth of mementos or memories.

There was an NFL ball signed and gifted by Ben Graham, who Hinkley coached as an assistant at Geelong, and some other prints but little paraphernalia. Hinkley has focused about the face-to-face nature of coaching.

His CEO Matthew Richardson said last week Hinkley had made it a must to speak with every player on the list every week. It may surprise this doesn't happen everywhere.

There were two certainties on Friday night against Gold Coast. One was that a weakened Port would give its all as it bid farewell to Travis Boak, Hinkley and assistant coach and club great Chad Cornes.

The other was that Zak Butters would be best afield. Hinkley's dynamo midfielder has been sore but was crucial in the win with 35 disposals, throwing himself – that should be willing himself – at every contest for his coach. Post-game Butters said he had nearly teared up during Hinkley's final three-quarter time address.

Ken Hinkley and Zak Butters after Port Adelaide's win over Gold Coast in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Port has been branded an emotional team led by an emotional coach. Hinkley has always noted internally at Port Adelaide if you are a caring person, you can't turn care off. His tenure has seen Port be a blue-collar club that has played high-octane football.

He said last week at his farewell press conference that his legacy would be not winning a flag, despite four preliminary finals berths and some near misses in finals. Straight-shooting has also been a big part of the Hinkley picture but to take that in isolation would be to unfairly diminish his role, along with Boak, in keeping Port alive when he took over at the club's lowest ebb.

Port people will know the other idiosyncrasies to Hinkley: how he commits to the club's theming every season (sometimes even including design-it-yourself merchandise), the countless cans of Pepsi Max consumed during a season (Coke Zero was the preferred choice before Port's sponsorship change) and on away trips the group order of Chinese food for the coaching panel and off-field team the night before a game.

Travis Boak and Ken Hinkley after Port Adelaide's win over Gold Coast in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

It is now Josh Carr's turn, as it was Hinkley's in 2013, after Carr has served a long and detailed apprenticeship. He will have his own plans, has already begun reshaping his coaching panel, will make list calls as soon as this week, and will be hoping for a much healthier squad next year, with Port's injury battles at times nearly mirroring Essendon's horrors in 2025. And he will have Hinkley as a supporter.

"I'm in love with the Port Adelaide footy club ... that's not easy to walk away from," Hinkley said on Friday night when asked about joining another club in a role in 2026.

BOMBERS NEED TO SHARPEN UP

STEELE Sidebottom revealed earlier this year that Collingwood's veterans came back to the pre-season wanting to do more touch work over summer. The Magpies champions felt they weren't at their best in 2024 after a shorter pre-season and that their skills weren't at the level they needed to be.

Essendon needs to heed this approach this off-season.

Put simply, the Bombers' skills are nowhere near where they need to be to compete with the best regularly. Zach Merrett is a class above with his kicking across his career and several of the club's better ball-users, like Nic Martin, Zach Reid, Jordan Ridley and Sam Durham, were injured against Carlton on Friday night when again the Bombers' lack of precision showed out.

But if the Bombers persist with a possession-oriented game they simply need to be better with the ball.

Zach Merrett leaves the MCG after his 250th game, against Carlton in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Champion Data regards Martin as Essendon's only player who rates elite for kicking efficiency. Across the season, Essendon's overall kick rating is 16th (only West Coast and Carlton were worse). The Bombers are also 16th for shots at goal, 16th for field kicks and 17th for kicks into forward 50.

It is stark reading, and obvious when watching any Essendon game that the club doesn't have enough ball-users to trouble teams consistently.

The benefit of 15 debutants this season means young players have been given vital experience at the top level ahead of time and Isaac Kako, Angus Clarke and Zak Johnson have had exciting first-year campaigns, Nate Caddy has star qualities and Archie Roberts is a future leader of the team.

With experience comes composure and with composure will come better kicking. But whatever Essendon does or targets in the acquisition period and draft, securing more quality kicks has to be high on the agenda.

Isaac Kako celebrates a goal during Essendon's clash with Carlton in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

ROO PRESSURE

NORTH Melbourne will enter 2026 as one of the most under-pressure clubs in the competition.

The Kangaroos finish the season in 16th position – outside the bottom two for the first time since 2019 – but must make a significant jump next season in Alastair Clarkson's fourth year in charge.

There have been improvements in North's overall game. At stoppages they have found a better mix and have risen from 11th to sixth in clearance and centre clearance differentials. They were last for points from clearances last year and have lifted slightly there (14th in 2025) and made a marked rise in points from centre clearances (17th to seventh this year).

Champion Data shows the Roos' offensive efficiency got better as well, with scores per inside 50 (18th to 10th), goal per inside 50 (10th to fifth) and kick inside 50 leading to a mark (17th to ninth) all jumping up.

That all said, Clarkson's side managed five or fewer wins for the sixth straight year and had six losses of more than 50 points (a reduction from nine last year).

George Wardlaw and Finn O'Sullivan after North Melbourne's loss to Adelaide in round 24, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

Finn O'Sullivan has been exciting in his debut season, Colby McKercher is a ball magnet, Paul Curtis is a gun who can be an All-Australian, Harry Sheezel has been exceptional since day one, George Wardlaw needs only to get his body onside before he reaches stardom and Cooper Trembath is a find. Across the season, North got 190 games experience from players aged 21 or under and remained the fourth-youngest team on average this year.

North doesn't have to make the finals next year to get a pass mark, but it has to be in the mix as the Roos enter year four under Clarkson and year six since they went to ground zero of their rebuild at the end of 2020.

Colby McKercher in action during North Melbourne's win over Richmond in round 23, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

AND ANOTHER THING … AGAIN

SAID this in round 10 and will say it again. The 'Dustyfication' of media access to the game's best players is a blight on the competition.

As 10 teams wave goodbye to 2025, some of the best, most high-profile and interesting players in the competition do so having not done any interviews outside of two-minute post-game broadcast chats.

The AFL's most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, which saw player wages rise dramatically, has this in its rules: "Each club will make available its playing group, including substitutes, from the previous round to accredited media for a minimum of 45 minutes within two days of a match." If only.

Because Richmond and Dustin Martin were able to navigate never doing any media, many of the game's better players (and passive clubs) attempt to do the same. The AFL took steps to hold clubs more accountable for injury lists this year and next year should have player access in its sights.

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