The Bears hear your ‘regression’ talk, and they have two words in response

Are you a Bears fan? Are you looking for a quarterback metric more important (and, for residents of Chicago, less annoying) than 4,000 passing yards in a season?

Then there’s good news for you in this season-opening edition of What I’m Hearing.

We’ll also discuss:

• Lamar Jackson’s contract situation in Baltimore — no hard feeling this time around;

• Why Joey Porter Jr. might have to keep waiting for that new contract;

• Three signs the Harbaugh Giants really are going to be different;

• That Anthony Richardson Sr. trade request: “I don’t think I have to call and say hey it’s off the table. I think it’s understood”;

• Cooper Rush this week, Michael Penix Jr. next?;

• And much more.

But first, let’s talk about the middle eight …

It’s a term made popular by Bill Belichick, referring to the final four minutes of the first half combined with the first four minutes of the second half. It’s a magical window of time that can, theoretically, swing a football game.

Bears head coach Ben Johnson has put out the (perhaps fanciful) goal of quarterback Caleb Williams completing 70 percent of his passes. Talking heads will remind you each week that Chicago has never had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards in a season. But inside the Bears, they’re focused primarily on that middle eight.

“If we can play quality football within structure in those moments, I think he’ll make a huge jump,” a Bears source, not authorized to speak with a reporter, told me recently.

The point of the middle eight — as well as the surrounding 52 — is to score points and prevent the other team from doing so. The easiest and most efficient way to do that is keeping the ball in the offense’s hands. This is Williams’ responsibility.

Johnson loves efficiency. An advocate for advanced metrics, he knows the importance of the expected points added statistic. When he took the job in Chicago, he said: “The EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now.”

Last year Williams ranked No. 21 in the league in EPA/dropback within the middle eight — 0.07, just below the league average of 0.10 and well behind the league leader (Drake Maye, at 0.39).

Just as how Williams improved year to year by taking fewer sacks (from 68 his rookie year to 24 last season), the Bears think he can make an improvement in middle-eight performance.

Johnson and the team have heard all the “regression” talk. History does say that leading the league in takeaways in consecutive years is difficult. And repeating six fourth-quarter comeback victories (seven if you count the playoffs) probably isn’t realistic. But what if the Bears don’t put themselves in that position in the first place?

“I think it’s lazy,” the Bears source said. “You see interceptions and say, ‘You can’t do that again.’ Fourth-quarter comebacks and say, ‘They can’t come back.’ And you’re ignoring all the space in between that can be improved.

“We use it for fuel more than anything.”

Rest assured, there is no beef between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens

If I am disrespecting the game, I apologize. We are two games into the 2026 NFL season, and I’m already thinking about the 2027 offseason.

The 2027 offseason can accurately be described as the Year of the Quarterback Contract, which obviously will be heavily influenced by the remaining 270 regular-season games and subsequent postseason. There will be multiple $60 million-per-year quarterbacks. There may even be a $70 million-per-year quarterback. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson doesn’t have a contract extension with the only NFL franchise he’s ever known, and he won’t have one by the time Baltimore takes the field Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. That is not for a lack of trying.

After spending the summer, particularly the past week, talking with league and team sources, all of whom spoke under condition of anonymity to discuss such a sensitive topic, I do not get the sense there is any animus between the team and player. In fact, I would go as far as to say the relationship between Jackson and the team is the healthiest it’s been. My understanding is that both parties have every intention of continuing their work together for years to come.

The 2024 draft class will be up for extensions come the spring, and that includes Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud will be looking for paydays then, too. What will Sam Darnold command? Can Jalen Hurts get a new deal? What happens when Kyler Murray balls out in Minnesota? Joe Burrow will be four years deep into his contract extension and may be in need of a true-up.

Odds are that all 10 of those players won’t earn major deals this season, but plenty will. The market will rise, and Jackson will benefit with a productive season.

Gone are the (short-lived) days of the fully guaranteed quarterback contract, and Jackson knows that. He’s even joked about it. The Ravens would have no problem making him the highest-paid quarterback in league history, and the two-time (nearly three-time) MVP has earned it.

Gone, too, are the days of trade requests from Jackson. During a contract stalemate in 2023, Jackson publicly requested a trade. Less than two months later, the two sides reached an agreement that made him the highest-paid quarterback in the league on the basis of average annual salary.

It’s difficult to pinpoint why a deal couldn’t be reached this offseason, but it’s not because either side is mad.

“People definitely think there’s beef, but they’re wrong,” a league source said. “In the past, and now.”

Could a deal be struck during the season? That seems unlikely for the simple fact Jackson serves as his own agent. Talking business during a season with Super Bowl aspirations wouldn’t help either side.

Jackson’s 2027 cap hit balloons to an unmanageable $84.3 million. Such a figure applies an incredible amount of pressure on the team, especially when that player has no-trade and no-tag clauses in his contract, as our Jeff Zrebiec properly noted this week. Jackson has long stated his mission is to win the championships that have eluded him so far. He’s also coming into his own as a businessman (he recently added to his portfolio by partnering with a cinematic K-12 learning platform.) It’s bad business for a player with Lombardi taste to occupy so much of the salary cap.

To be clear, this isn’t to say Jackson should, could or will take less money. The Ravens organization doesn’t have a cash-flow problem, and we all have seen ways the cap has been manipulated since the last collective bargaining agreement, allowing teams to spend more cash than cap (something the league may seek to narrow in the next CBA, by the way.) For now, there is always money in Steve Bisciotti’s banana stand.

If the Ravens win the Super Bowl, the vibes will be immaculate and the check will be blank. If it’s a trying year, things may get complicated. But record deal or not as the season begins, one thing is clear: There are no hard feelings between player and team.

Do the Steelers really want a Joey Porter Jr. deal?

It’s Saturday morning, so there is still time to strike a deal, but after many conversations, I have not been overwhelmed with confidence that the Steelers and Joey Porter Jr. will come to an agreement on a new contract before the start of the season.

The two sides finally engaged in talks this week after several months. Before that, there were legitimate questions of whether the Steelers wanted to extend Porter (though it is the Steelers’ MO to wait longer than players think they should, as our Mike DeFabo laid out). Pittsburgh has a long-standing policy of not doing contracts in season, so there is a real deadline here.

The 2023 second-round pick is entering the final year of his rookie contract with three solid years on his resume but no All-Pro or Pro Bowl honors. He has three career interceptions and 31 passes defensed, including a career-high 14 last season. Quarterbacks had a 49.1 passer rating throwing against Porter in 2025, one of the lowest marks in the league.

But while the Steelers extended three of the cornerback’s 2023 draft classmates — OLB Nick Herbig, TE Darnell Washington and DT Keanu Benton — a deal for Porter has yet to materialize.

Meanwhile, the cornerback market continues to rise. Eighteen months ago Jaycee Horn became the highest-paid corner in the league at $25 million per year. Just this week, the Patriots signed Christian Gonzalez to a deal averaging $33.75 million per year.

“Is Joey Porter as good as maybe he values himself as?” an AFC executive asked. “I would assume he wants to be around Surtain/Horn, maybe even higher. And he isn’t to that level of a player.

“Maybe (the Steelers) are willing to take the comp pick or franchise-tag versus committing to a likely overpay.”

The exec pointed to Porter’s penalties as one reason he doesn’t consider him among the league’s best corners. Porter leads defenders in coverage penalties over the last three seasons. He had 16 coverage penalties (pass interference or holding) in 1,592 coverage snaps. The next-closest defender had 13.

The projected franchise tag for a cornerback next year would come in around $23 million and represent about 7 percent of the salary cap. That would be well off the pace of the highest-paid corners in the league and likely a digestible number for the Steelers, depending upon how this season goes. Watching Porter walk in free agency could net as high as a third-round compensatory pick, which would be a great return after four years of cost-controlled play.

One could argue the price of a high-end cornerback is only going to go up next offseason. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be extension eligible, and Howie Roseman is known for doing deals early. Pat Surtain II will be three years into his 2024 extension and possibly due more than the extra cash the Broncos put on his deal this summer.

The Steelers’ season kicks off at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. The clock is ticking.

More outstanding extensions

While the Steelers don’t do in-season deals, plenty of other teams do. If the Jacksonville Jaguars and Parker Washington don’t reach an agreement this weekend, there’s nothing preventing them from striking one next week or the week after. It will be interesting to see if Washington ends up with a contract closer to Alec Pierce (at $28.5 million AAV) or Michael Wilson (at $25 million AAV).

Ditto the Green Bay Packers and tight end Tucker Kraft. Something can still get done during the season if it’s not done this weekend. A Kraft extension would also clear the path for the Detroit Lions to potentially get an extension done for Sam LaPorta.

About that Anthony Richardson Sr. trade request …

There is no formal trade-request mechanism in the NFL. It’s not like the transfer portal in college, or how one may file for PTO from their job. A player and his agent can request a trade, and the team can acquiesce or not.

Relatedly, there is no mechanism to withdraw a request. And that’s where things are with the Colts and QB2 Anthony Richardson Sr.

“Chris has made it abundantly clear Anthony is gonna be here,” Richardson’s agent, Deiric Jackson, told me. “I don’t think I have to call him and say hey it’s off the table. I think it’s understood. And the Colts are going to do what’s in the best interest of the Colts.”

Richardson’s story — at least his latest chapter — is one of resilience. To recap, the No. 4 pick of the 2023 draft needed reps early in his career but dealt with injuries. In his second year, he infamously tapped out of a game due to exhaustion. The team benched him shortly after that and in the 2025 offseason signed Daniel Jones to compete with him in training camp; Jones won that competition. As the backup, Richardson fractured his orbital bone in a freak accident involving a resistance band during warmups. He didn’t play the rest of the year.

In February, Richardson requested a trade. General manager Chris Ballard agreed to seek a trade, but nothing materialized. The Minnesota Vikings signed Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz. The Los Angeles Rams drafted Ty Simpson in the first round. The Packers signed veteran Tyrod Taylor after the draft. Richardson, whose fifth-year option was declined, showed up for organized team activities, and, according to Jackson, there have been no trade talks since.

Understanding his lot in life, Richardson put his head down and worked all preseason, battling with Riley Leonard for the backup role. Head coach Shane Steichen announced a week ago that Richardson earned the QB2 role as Jones returns to his starting position after tearing an Achilles last year.

Trading Richardson was always going to be difficult. He was coming off a serious eye injury after years of injury questions. Today it would cost less for a team to trade for him ($1.1 million) than it would have earlier in the preseason, but considering the draft pick they invested in him, the Colts wouldn’t have wanted to let him go for a late-Day 3 pick.

This offseason and preseason saw very little quarterback movement via trade. Since January there have been five trades involving QBs: Geno Smith, Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Quinn Ewers and Kyle McCord. A lack of quarterback injuries this summer meant a quieter trade market.

While Jackson will always do his due diligence and be prepared, he says it would be “a disservice” to Richardson if he’s regularly in his ear telling him what he’s hearing around the league. Richardson is focused on being ready to play if his number’s called.

The trade deadline is Nov. 10. Because the Colts didn’t pick up his fifth-year option, Richardson is set to become a free agent come March.

The stories of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield finding success elsewhere after being top picks can be motivation for Richardson. Even knowing his friend Malik Willis, with whom he works out in the offseason, got a new football life, first in Green Bay and now Miami, helps.

Jackson uses these examples of players who made it through trying phases when he tells his client that “God is going to give you everything you want when He knows that you’re ready.”

“This dude is 24 years old and as talented as they come,” Jackson says, “and now he’s starting to put the mental piece with the physical piece he’s been blessed with. His story is far from done.”

The change Harbaugh is already delivering

Ever since John Harbaugh took the New York Giants job, there has been plenty of internet ink spilled on how the culture has changed. The training camp practices were more intense, everyone in the building was put on notice, et cetera, et cetera.

I think it’s healthy to always take a tablespoon of skepticism with these stories (especially since I don’t get to spend much time in their building). But there are three things from this preseason that affirm the narrative.

Paulson Adebo signed a three-year, $54 million contract with Big Blue last year. He is set to be a backup Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys. Adebo will be behind Greg Newsome II and Deonte Banks as the season kicks off. Banks had a great camp, I’m told, and while Adebo rounded into form the final two weeks of the preseason, consistency mattered. Adebo will play, and he can earn his starting job back, but his contract did not dictate that to be a given.

Same goes for Darius Slayton. The Giants owed him a guaranteed $9.75 million this year, and releasing him saved less than $3 million against the cap. But he was hardly creating separation in competition, I’m told. You can argue whether it’s the best allocation of funds, but the sunk-cost fallacy has claimed any number of victims across the NFL.

And lastly: Odell Beckham Jr. Yes, the unfortunate season-ending injury to Calvin Austin III made it easier for OBJ to make the roster. Someone with his celebrity status within the organization and fanbase (not to mention outside the organization), coupled with how close he is to Harbaugh, might lead you to believe he always had the inside track. But Beckham earned it. His teammates saw it and, frankly, you did, too.

Beckham played in 78 snaps across three preseason games. He even played in the third quarter in two of the exhibitions. In November, OBJ will turn 34. No player 33 years or older played more snaps this preseason than Beckham and made his team’s 53-man roster. In fact, Beckham’s preseason workload was the most for a receiver 33 years or older since at least 2017, and 12 more snaps than the next-closest receiver this year. (It’s also appropriate to credit Beckham with doing whatever it took to make the team against the risk of embarrassment.)

In Harbaugh’s first training camp, there were no shortcuts for anyone. Everyone had to put in the work to earn that spot. You have to appreciate that.

Rush in the limelight now, Penix could be next

The Atlanta Falcons are starting Cooper Rush on Sunday against the Steelers, but there’s no panic there. Rush is 9-7 as a starter and has a history — mostly from his days in Dallas — of being a guy who can get it done despite very little prep time with the starters.

Talking with folks in Atlanta, they’re confident in Rush’s ability to operate the offense. Clearly, the team thought enough of him to keep him on the roster at cutdown day, when a team such as the New York Jets could have scooped him up.

The Falcons believe Tua Tagovailoa has a chance to be ready for Week 2 at home against the Carolina Panthers. An oblique injury knocked him out of Thursday’s practice and made clear to the Falcons they would be rolling with Rush and undrafted rookie Jack Strand in the opener.

Here’s what else I can tell you: Some within the building hope the events of this week can help Michael Penix Jr. get over that final mental hurdle and be ready for Week 2. Penix, recovering from his third ACL tear, is medically cleared to play, but he has acknowledged he needs more time to mentally prepare before returning to the field (a refreshing bit of honesty, for what it’s worth).

In this scenario, it’s possible Tagovailoa, who was named the Week 1 starter on Labor Day, doesn’t start at all. Tagovailoa did not perform well in the exhibitions, though I’m told he did look better in practice the past two weeks as head coach Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees began tailoring the offense to his strengths rather than using the vanilla playbook of preseason games.

The Falcons are going to give Penix the time and support he needs to be confident in his body and abilities. For now, it’s Rush’s show, and he’s in the limelight.

Union staffs up ahead of the next CBA negotiation

It’s quiet time at the NFLPA as it continues to regain strength after the Lloyd Howell exit a year ago. JC Tretter is entering his first NFL season as the executive director, and he began his 32-team tour this month.

Last week, the union hired Matt Taylor as its chief communications officer. The veteran PR guy had worked for the Miami Dolphins, Colts and Washington Commanders before a stint in strategic comms. As the lead in messaging to players ahead of a consequential CBA negotiation, Taylor’s experience for NFL teams was important to Tretter.

Tretter still needs to hire a general counsel after the retirement of Tom DePaso, but he’s made other top-officer moves as he readies the union for the next four to five years, including a chief administrative officer and chief player officer, according to sources. The current CBA expires in March 2031.

And everything else …

There are only six teams that begin the 2026 regular season with the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, special teams coordinator and starting quarterback as they had last year: Carolina, Cincinnati, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and New Orleans. (Seven if you include the Patriots; inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr was their acting DC for all of last season before he got the formal promotion in February.)

I think most in the NFL would tell you continuity matters and is important so long as it’s not confused with complacency. But I see two things when I look at that stat. The first is the honest truth, that continuity won’t win you a Super Bowl. The Seattle Seahawks weren’t on this last year, nor were the Philadelphia Eagles the year before. Secondly, there is a lot of usable tape out there on the AFC South to begin September. Unfortunately for the Tennessee Titans, the lone team in that division with change at these spots, they don’t play a divisional game until Week 5.

Browns games with Green?: I heard Todd Monken say rookie Taylen Green could be Cleveland’s QB2 in Week 1 and thought, “Hmm … that’s bait.” The 6-foot-6, 230-pound Green can, physically, do things neither Deshaun Watson nor Shedeur Sanders can. If Monken can occupy Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile just a little bit in Week 1 prep with that threat, I think he will.

Getting Drew Locked in: Credit to Seattle OC Brian Fleury and Jake Peetz, the team’s quarterbacks coach and offensive passing game coordinator, for having Drew Lock ready Wednesday night. That was a tall task, and Lock was prepared.

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