Heath Cummings' Week 1 Fantasy projections: Biggest risers and fallers

Welcome to Week 1. We made it. I am sure you are as excited as I am. After months of talking about average draft position, roster builds, and season long strategy, the discussion turns to Week 1 projections and start sit decisions. Don't be ashamed if you feel just a little bit of anxiety about this, particularly when it comes to starting someone you drafted in Round 8 over someone you drafted in Round 4. It happens.

Everyone has a different way of deciding who they are going to start in a given week. Some think more about upside, others heavily weigh matchups, and maybe the majority let their gut be the final decision maker. I am not here to tell you how you should go through that process, only give you a window into my projections, which are the biggest driver of my weekly lineup decisions. Each Monday, I will tell you the biggest risers and fallers from the prior week, and why. I say that with a very large caveat. It's Monday. My projections will look considerably different by Sunday morning due to injury reports, line movement, and general vibes. The good news for you is that the spreadsheets below will update when I update the projections. So you can check back throughout the week to see my updated projections, including on Sunday morning. So yes, you should bookmark this page. Let's take a look at the biggest risers and fallers for Week 1

Risers

Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers

Herbert was just barely a QB1 in my season-long projections. He is nearly "The QB1" in Week 1. Having an implied total of 28.5 will do that for you. Jared Goff also rose in the projections, though not quite as high. Herbert and the Chargers should be able to do whatever they want against the Cardinals' defense, and unlike Goff, we expect Herbert to add a little bit with his legs. While he looked like an uncertain starter, in Week 1 he's a must-start unless you also drafted Jalen Hurts.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots

As of early Monday, we are not expecting TreVeyon Henderson to play in Week 1. That means that even though I lowered Stevenson's efficiency because of the defense, and even though the Patriots are road underdogs in the season opener, Stevenson projects as a borderline RB1. His 17 rush attempts are the second-highest mark, and Mike McDonald's defense has historically been willing to give up pass production to running backs as well. It may not be pretty on Wednesday night, but Stevenson is live to lead all running backs in touches in Week 1. Remember, while he only had seven rushes for 23 yards in the Super Bowl, he still scored 18.3 PPR Fantasy points because of his work in the passing game.

Marshawn Lloyd, RB, Packers

This one is simpler. Lloyd was projected as a partial-season starter who could eventually lose his job if Josh Jacobs returned. We have virtually no concern about Jacobs playing in Week 1, as he is still on the Commissioner Exempt list. Lloyd should be the lead running back for the Packers and a decent bet to finish as an RB2, if not higher.

Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks

Take everything I said above but replace Jacobs with Zach Charbonnet. While Price may cede more work than we would like to George Holani, he should be the clear lead back and an RB2 like Lloyd.

DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers

Did you see Aaron Rodgers talking about his wide receivers? It seems clear, at least to begin the year, that Metcalf is the clear WR1 in this offense. And while Rodgers does like to get the ball out early, he won't have much pass rush to worry about against Atlanta. Indoors, on a fast track, Metcalf could have a huge day if Mike McCarthy can scheme him away from A.J. Terrell on a couple of plays. Metcalf projects as a borderline WR2, I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes much higher.

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders

Much like Metcalf, Tucker seems entrenched as the clear WR1 for the Raiders to open the season. And the Raiders' implied total of 22 may be one of their highest of the seasons. From a pure football perspective the Raiders and Dolphins could be one of the worst games of the week, but this should be an excellent chance for their Fantasy options to get off to a good start.

Fallers

49ers

I am usually pretty cautious about downgrading players due to their opponent early in the season. But I am terrified of this Rams defense. Brock Purdy was my favorite QB to draft this year, but he is not in my top 15 this week. I am also worried about George Kittle in his first game back, Mike Evans battling a groin injury, and De'Zhaun Stribling in his first game in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey is the only 49er I really want to start, and even his projection took a hit. If you are looking for a streamer to start over Purdy, Kyler Murray is available in 26% of leagues, and Tyler Shough is available in 38% of leagues. I project both of them to score more points this week. At tight end, I would rather start Dalton Schultz than Kittle, and he's only rostered in half of leagues.

Rookie running backs not named Jadarian Price

Jeremiyah Love might not even play, but we're ranking him for now. He's coming off a high ankle sprain, a 10-point underdog, and likely in a heavy split early in the season with Tyler Allgeier. For all those reasons, Love is not a top 24 running back for me. You probably weren't planning on starting any other rookies, but I don't even like them as flexes, as I expect they have to earn their touches early in the season, and several of them are handcuffs. As a rule, backup running backs are far more enticing in Draft season than they are in Week 1 lineup decisions. The one exception to this one would be Mike Washington if Ashton Jeanty sits out Week 1. For now, we expect Jeanty to play.

Week 1 quarterback projections

Week 1 running back projections

Week 1 wide receiver projections

Week 1 tight end projections

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