Crucial Dogs fix, Sexton curveball; Coops’ huge Bellamy call — Matty and Cronk’s finals verdict

The Bulldogs need to make a change to rediscover their DNA, while Sam Walker has been likened to Reece Walsh if the Roosters are to advance.

Meanwhile, the time has come for Addin Fonua-Blake to deliver on exactly why the club paid big money to get him.

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Read on for Matty and Cronk’s finals verdicts for week one.

STORM VS BULLDOGS

The Storm and the Bulldogs are coming into the finals series amid form slumps and both missing key players to injury and suspension, which makes their match-up intriguing and hard to predict.

Melbourne are missing Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen to injury and Nelson Asofa-Solomona to suspension, while the Bulldogs are without outside backs Marcelo Montoya, Bronson Xerri and potentially Jacob Kiraz, while they have dropped Reed Mahoney in a bombshell move.

Matty Johns asked if Cronk was a betting man who of the eight finals teams would he bet on going all the way.

“The question I will ask is can the Storm win the premiership?” Johns said on Matty and Cronk.

“Well of course they can. If I give you five grand to put on any team to win the competition, do you put it on Melbourne?”

Cronk didn’t hesitate because he knows how Grand Final defeat can drive a team to greater heights.

“Yes I do,” Cronk said.

“Look, I just feel like what happened last year, I’ve been there. I’ve lost grand finals and it plays a part.

“They are not playing well at the moment, but in terms of Storm vs the Dogs, you talk about the match-up, I think this is won in the coach’s box. I don’t think it is two players on the field that determines who wins.

“I think Craig Bellamy can pull out the magic dust and get that team back on track and play like they can because you don’t forget how to ride a bike. This team can play, it has just fallen off a cliff the last couple of weeks.”

However, Cronk believes the Bulldogs are a chance of springing an upset if they get back to what worked for them when they led the competition early in the season.

“The Bulldogs on the other side, they were the best team for the majority of the year, when they were doubling down on their defence,” Cronk said.

“Then they made a couple of decisions and they thought, if we are going to beat the best teams we need to be more creative with the ball in hand and I think they have dropped their DNA defensively.”

Johns noted the Storm need to get back to their defensive roots as well.

“I thought against the Broncos for the first time in a long time I saw the Storm trying to football their way out of trouble,” Johns said.

“I understand Harry Grant not being there is a factor, but they were pushing the ball sideways and forcing their attack game and coming up with a lot of errors.”

Cronk agreed the Storm need to build their game on defence and leave the attack to their two biggest stars.

“I think for Melbourne to be great and win, with no Papenhuyzen and Hughes this week, they almost need the rest of the team to just focus on stopping the opposition and just doing their role,” Cronk said.

“And just trust Harry Grant and Cameron Munster to come up with the plays. Don’t get too cute with trying to come up with elaborate ways of trying to dismantle the Dogs.

“Just take them on through the front door and when the quick play-the-ball comes, trust that Grant and Munster will deliver.”

Johns threw out a left-field idea for the Bulldogs with three outside backs sidelined.

“A question for the Dogs with Montoya is out, Kiraz potentially out and the big one Bronson Xerri is out,” Johns said.

“What about putting Burton to left centre, Hayward to No.6 and Sexton to halfback. They wouldn’t swallow their pride?”

Cronk agreed it could help the Bulldogs in attack, but perhaps not their kicking game.

“You are not far off the mark, but I don’t think they would do it,” Cronk said.

“Their long kicking game is effected. We saw what happened when Burton went there on the weekend, their long kicking game suffered, so at half-time he got moved back into the No.6.”

Cronk believes the Storm are the favourites unless the Bulldogs can rediscover their suffocating defence.

“I think the Storm win,” Cronk said.

“What the Bulldogs need to do is their middle forwards leg speed defensively needs to get back to swarming the opposition.”

“They are not without a chance the Bulldogs, the last time they played they really took it to Melbourne in that second half,” Johns added.

Matty and Cronk’s verdict: Storm

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WARRIORS VS PANTHERS

The Panthers are the overwhelming favourites to advance given their big game experience and the fact they have Nathan Cleary, but the Warriors have a chance of springing an upset on their home ground.

Johns believes the Panthers showed their hand with how they attacked the Dragons in their last game, which wasn’t a perfect performance, but showed their intent with what wins big games.

“It is a very tough road trip to Auckland, but a tough match-up for the Warriors,” Johns said.

“Nathan Cleary is the key man in this and probably the key man in the finals. Just his precision against the Dragons and I thought there was a couple of little clues about how they are going to go about their work in this finals series.

“Their attack is very much an exact science. We talk about the play before the play and there was an example in their first try against the Dragons.

“Cleary drops one of his forwards under and the Dragons solve the problem from the inside, which means they have taken a defender from the other side of the field.

“And Cleary is very clever and they went back that way and Jenkins scores in the corner and we are seeing that more and more.”

Cronk believes a former Panthers premiership winner will play a huge role for the Warriors.

“This is where James Fisher-Harris plays a part in this game,” Cronk said.

“He is the key man in this game. I have played finals against a team I knew inside out.

“The Panthers are not going to change their style in the finals. Every time they get in good ball position, they drop off a player and they hardly ever keep going the same way.

“So when they are going right, they won’t go right again. Cleary will drop off a player and do the overload principle and shift back to the side where the play-the-ball came from.

“Why? Because the fullback may get the numbers wrong and it’s harder to get. It’s easier to set that short side first and then shift it.

“I think Fisher-Harris plays a huge part in this game for two reasons. One for intel. He knows how Penrith play. Webster knows and he has to come up with a plan to stop their attack.

“On the flip side I think him coming up against Moses Leota, is so good.

“It is almost like whoever kicks off, kick to the other one and I want to see both of them get into it because there is a spirit about Fisher-Harris that I believe if he can have a first carry and smash the Panthers’ pack, I think it gives Halasima, Capewell all those other forwards belief.

“But on the flip side if he takes his first carry and Penrith smash him, they will go, uh oh if he can’t do it how are we going to do it? So kick to Fisher-Harris or Leota and let them go.”

Johns agreed the battle between the two former teammates will be one to watch and will set the tone for the match.

“It’s going to be something, it is like an old-fashioned softening up period,” Johns said.

“That intimidation factor either side.”

Johns broke down a set the Panthers put on against the Dragons, that shows why they are the master of building pressure and suffocating their opposition, especially in big games.

“This is a snapshot of how Penrith go about their work in big finals games,” Johns said.

“They have a no frills set, but it is what they build to. Of course it starts with one of the back three taking it forward in Dylan Edwards. Then it goes to To’o or Jenkins out of dummyhalf.

“Then they go to Casey McLean another outside back alleviating the pressure on the forwards.

“Then Cleary goes, you know what we have got forward, let’s have a crack at the 40/20. We kick early and we are going to chase really hard.

“We are looking for the 40/20, but if we don’t get it, we are going to exert pressure and suffocate them with our kick chase.”

Cronk doubled down on his Fisher-Harris prediction because he has the inside knowledge to help devise a winning game plan and the fire and brimstone to fight what is coming.

“That’s why Fisher-Harris plays a part in the intel because if that’s their style, what would you do?” Cronk said.

“Tighten up in defence, shoulder to shoulder and know they are going to go one, two, three with their outside backs.

And Cleary usually stands behind Isaah Yeo when they want to shift the ball. If he is standing up in front If Yeo, guess what’s happening? He is kicking the ball.

“The game is brutal but there is a game of chess that goes on as well. If Fisher-Harris can get that across and Webster comes up with a plan, with that emotion of their home ground, they just might be a chance. They are a long shot, but they could be a chance.

“It has to be their best performance by a country mile in a long time.”

Johns agreed the Warriors are outsiders, but depending on the conditions, they will give themselves a chance to spring an upset and knock Penrith out.

“They are a puncher’s chance, if they can dictate the terms of the contest, who knows?” Johns said.

“You might get over there and it is pouring with rain and it becomes that sort of match.”

Matty and Cronk’s verdict: Panthers

SHARKS VS ROOSTERS

The Sharks’ clash with the Roosters looms as arguably the toughest game to pick in the first week of the finals, with both sides in top form and peaking at the right time of the year.

The Roosters are coming off a dominant win over the Rabbitohs, while the Sharks upset the Bulldogs in one of their best performances of the season.

Johns believes the decision to backflip on Nicho Hynes’ suspension was a huge call, but ultimately the right one.

“Sharks and Roosters I find this one really difficult to pick,” Johns said.

“Nicho is free to play which is a big one. I thought it was the right decision to get it downgraded. When I heard they were going to fight it I thought he will be OK.”

Cronk agreed the right decision was made in the end, but urged the match review committee to get it right in the first place.

“It was right on the edge of it, but I just don’t like that you can be charged for one thing and then they go, wait a minute he is all right, let this one through,” Cronk said.

“Get it right first. Don’t stuff around and retract things.”

Johns believes a key for both sides will be the battle of the back three and coming out of yardage, especially for the Sharks.

“The back three have got to dominate yardage,” Johns said.

“When the Sharks play great, you see that back three they fight in yardage and dominate the yardage, so they have to do that here, particularly because the Sharks forwards are going to have their hands full with Tedesco and co drilling through the middle.”

Cronk believes the key to the Sharks advancing is the star prop they signed to take them to the next level come finals time and this is his chance to shine.

“If you would have asked me the Sharks’ chances before the win over the Bulldogs, I would have gone, no not really,” Cronk said.

“But that was a very good performance. It was very, very good and I think the key player in this game is Fonua-Blake.

“I feel like Hynes is the decision maker and now that he is available, he will be the guy that comes up with the plays.

“If Fonua-Blake can deliver on that alpha male role and smash the Roosters pack and give his halves the chance I think the Sharks will win.”

Johns believes Fonua-Blake is a victim of his own excellence after failing to reach the heights he did at the Warriors since joining the Sharks.

“Timing is everything and this is what they bought him for,” Johns said.

“By his standards, if you ask someone how has Fonua-Blake’s season been? They would say OK. But really if you didn’t know who he was, you would go, this bloke is outstanding.”

Cronk also noted if Fonua-Blake sets the tone up front it will allow the Sharks’ spine to get on the front foot, which is when they play their best footy.

“The other part to it is if the Roosters can’t control him, it gives Blayke Brailey the chance to run,” Cronk said.

“We have seen when Brailey runs, Nicho gets up and starts becoming a support player.”

The Roosters know what to expect from their skipper Tedesco, who is in arguably career best form, but Johns and Cronk believe another spine player holds the key for the Roosters.

“Tedesco’s impact speaks for itself, but it is a big finals series for Sam Walker,” Johns said.

Cronk likened Walker to Walsh at the Broncos in that he has to get the balance right in his game.

“Tedesco has just been brilliant, he will win the Dally M,” Cronk said.

“But Sam Walker, I think the Roosters have a couple of things to get right. Their completion rate, they just cannot give the opposition too many opportunities and Walker needs to get that perfect balance.

“It’s a bit like Reece Walsh, if Walker gets the option to make good decisions, but then back himself at different times, the Roosters will be hard to beat.”

Cronk tipped the Roosters in a tight one, but believes Fonua-Blake has the ability to swing the result in Cronulla’s favour.

“I’m going to say Roosters win, but I’m going to wait the first 15 minutes and if Fonua-Blake is the best player on the field, I think the Sharks can win and if he is not the Roosters win,” Cronk said.

Johns believes the Sharks will get the job done at home, but it is easily the toughest game to pick in the first week of the finals.

“I’m leaning towards the Sharks at home, I like what they are doing,” Johns said.

“They have had inconsistency through the year, but the timing is good. Brailey is elusive when he scoops and go’s. That’s the best of the Sharks and it brings out the best in Hynes, so it will be an interesting game.”

Matty and Cronk’s vercit: Sharks/Roosters

RAIDERS VS BRONCOS

The consensus have this Sunday afternoon blockbuster as the match of the weekend, and it’s hard to argue.

These two sides clashed just the once this season, way back in Round 2, with the Raiders upsetting Brisbane 32-22.

The fact that this game will be played during the day will benefit the Broncos according to Johns.

“Historically, Brisbane struggle in Canberra… even those great Broncos sides back in the day, even they struggled down there because it’s completely different conditions,” Johns said.

“Night football in Canberra is quite slippery, it’s wet, it’s freezing cold. But Sunday afternoon football in Canberra is fantastic, so that goes back to them a little bit.”

The battle of the forward packs is set to be the most intriguing contest.

The Raiders boast a fearsome pack, headlined by prop Joe Tapine and gun edge back rower Hudson Young.

Josh Papalii is the veteran presence who has a stack of big game experience, but he’s in doubt with an ankle injury.

The Broncos meanwhile have no injury concerns, with their pack just as dominant as their opponents.

“You talk about the match-ups, they’re pretty even across the board,” Cronk said.

“Michael Maguire versus Ricky Stuart, pretty similar. Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan versus Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii.”

“Exciting young, energetic outside backs and then the shot callers in the No.7 is an experienced hand, so they are balanced well.

“I think the match-up for this, the forward packs will deliver because they are experienced.

However, Cronk believes it will be one of the outside backs who potentially breaks the game open.

The halves will deliver, but which one of the outside backs gets up and about,” he said.

“Is it Weekes? Is it Walsh? Is it Timoko? Is it Staggs? I feel like which ever energetic outside back gets a moment, I think it feeds confidence.

“I feel like it sits in the outside backs, an intercept, a poor read that leads to a try. But I feel like Canberra should feel very confident at home.”

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