Arsenal's previous wins have meant NOTHING - only beating Man City in Carabao Cup final can signal change in Premier League guard

Spanning from May 2016 to October 2023, Arsenal went a whopping 15 matches without beating Manchester City in the Premier League, losing 13 times to Guardiola's men. That barren run was at least split up by wins in the FA Cup semi-finals in 2017 and 2020, as well as a Community Shield victory on penalties in 2023, but you still couldn't shake the feeling that City had the Gunners' number.

This seldom mattered for most of the time the streak was still in play. City and Arsenal were not usually fighting for the Premier League title at the same time. It was only in 2022-23 when Arteta's side took a monumental, unexpected leap that the fixture became consequential on a national scale.

Due to fixtures having to be rescheduled following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Arsenal had to play City twice in the second half of the 2022-23 season, only ramping up the pressure. The Gunners were handedly beaten on both occasions and lost the title by five points. The 248 days they led the table became a record for a team not to finish in first.

By the time City visited the Emirates Stadium in October 2023, Arsenal were now a known quantity. They were, as such, treated with respect by Guardiola's men.

In 2022-23, Arsenal beat every 'big six' side at least once, but City were the one team they couldn't squeeze past no matter how they tried. It was imperative they let them know they were serious about being direct rivals again.

Their first meeting of 2023-24 appeared to be heading towards a cagey 0-0 draw until Gabriel Martinelli popped up with a late winner, moving them two points clear of City at the time. A mental weight was off their shoulders.

"I don't know if it was a barrier, but we needed to go through it," Arteta said of the win's significance. "A great feeling. You could sense, it’s been so many years without beating them. Today I think we beat the best team in the world."

The second meeting of 2023-24 had far more significance on the title race. By the end of March 2024, Liverpool led the standings, but Arsenal could have moved into first with victory at the Etihad Stadium.

Once again, it was a feisty affair, but this time one that ended goalless. Arteta hadn't necessarily parked the bus, but his side did play with a conservatism that Arsenal hadn't deployed away at City in years. In one sense, that was an understandable approach, though it belatedly came in for criticism when City beat them to the crown by only a single point.

After lifting the Premier League trophy for a fourth-successive time, Rodri made his feelings on Arsenal clear. "To be honest, I think it's in here," he said, pointing to his head. "It's the mentality. Arsenal, also they deserve [to win the league], they did an unbelievable season, but I think the difference was in here [their heads].

"When they came here, they faced us at the Etihad, I saw them and said: 'Ah, these guys, they don't want to beat us, they just want a draw'. And that mentality, I don't think we would do it the same way. And we caught them. At the end, if you give us one point, we will win the last seven, eight games even though it's so tough. So I think it comes down to mentality."

This was a very easy thing for Rodri to come out and say only after the race was decided. City, memorably, nearly threw away their one-point advantage heading into the final day having limped past Tottenham Hotspur in their penultimate fixture. Nevertheless, history is written by the winners and Arsenal have not yet had that chance to decide the narrative for themselves.

The rivalry between Arsenal and City hit new levels of hatred in 2024-25, despite neither side getting anywhere near the title in the end. Their September 2024 clash at the Etihad was one for the ages, with the visitors coming from behind to lead 2-1, only for the complexion of the contest to change dramatically when Leandro Trossard was controversially sent off on the stroke of half-time. Arteta's men dug in deep and seemed destined to claim their first win at City's home since 2015, only for John Stones to scramble in a 98th-minute equaliser.

During the game, Erling Haaland continually clashed with Gabriel Magalhaes, while the Norwegian also taunted debutant Myles Lewis-Skelly by asking who the teenager was before he had even set foot on the pitch. The striker then told Arteta to "stay humble" post-match.

Arsenal didn't particularly like City before, despite the various Etihad alumni finding new homes at the Emirates, but this seemed to take their hatred to a new level. City were destroyed 5-1 later that same season. Lewis-Skelly, now a regular in the first XI, scored and mimicked Haaland's zen celebration. Gleeful supporters chanted from the stands, "Erling Haaland, stay humble you c***".

Beating Guardiola's City 5-1 isn't something to be glossed over or written out of history. If anything, it may have eradicated any lingering fear Arsenal still had in them. However, if Arteta's side aren't the ones lifting the Carabao Cup come Sunday evening, then people will question again whether they have truly gotten over that hump.

Arsenal are now unbeaten in their six most recent encounters with City, which is a far cry from their record of 15 without a win that preceded it. When Guardiola threw 11 men behind the ball in an eventual 1-1 draw in September, it was a mark of respect. The Gunners are no longer the whipping boys of the Premier League's 'big six' and instead are a team of men awaiting coronation.

Well, 'awaiting' isn't entirely accurate. Arsenal will still have to go out and claim what's theirs, starting with this cup final. They will not be handed the trophy, rather they will merely win or lose it in a one-off match.

There is sometimes a sense that to keep your cool in a cup final, you should play the game and not the occasion. In Arsenal's case, the opposite might be true. This group of players have never played a cup final together before, and the notion they ought to treat it like any other match could lead them into underestimating Guardiola's City, with the Catalan coach having scooped up six domestic trophies during his time in England.

Arsenal have to show to the world that they have a higher level they can reach, another gear they can kick into. Their methodical, set-piece driven style does suit knockout football, but will that be enough to beat City in a game where there's something more than just a victory on the day on the line?

Any team who gets to this stage of the season still in four competitions is doused in talk of winning the quadruple. It's still an unprecedented feat in English football. Even a treble has been achieved just three times - City (2023) and Manchester United (1999) both won the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League, while Guardiola's side are the only to have won a domestic treble (2019).

Arteta is fully aware of the situation Arsenal find themselves in given they are favourites, among bookies and stats gurus alike, to win each of the four honours they're still competing for, despite having not lifted them together before. "When you have been in this position without winning, it becomes more of a necessity, but more driven, and it is something that we have, and it is something we have been trying to achieve for a while," he said at his pre-match press conference.

"Let's live it on Sunday. I have done it when that stadium has been full. It is one of the best memories I have as a player."

Arsenal are the best team in the land. No one can question that right now, and as long as they are victorious at Wembley, they will be unlikely to for a long time to come. They simply need to get over this last mental hurdle for good.

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