Kerry to work out the Dublin conundrum

After stripping Ulster for parts over the last two seasons, Kerry will try and solve another conundrum in today's All-Ireland semi-final - the Dublin problem.

Since their dramatic extra-time All-Ireland semi-final loss to eventual champions Armagh in 2024, Jack O'Connor's side have played eight knockout championship games. Seven have been against Ulster opposition and all seven have been won.

The Kingdom’s post-Millennium struggles with the northern province, particularly Tyrone, Armagh and Donegal – and even a shock loss to Down in 2010 – irritated, and O’Connor felt the sting more than most.

"They talk about football as if it was their own invention," he snarled in his 2007 book, 'Keys to the Kingdom’.

That snarl has softened since, why wouldn’t it? Ulster’s best have thrown all they have at Kerry over the last two seasons, only to be dismissed with, in the majority of cases anyway, an almost nonchalance.

Fair shout or not, maybe Kerry folk would stomach losses to Dublin much easier than Ulster. It is, arguably, the greatest rivalry in Irish sport. O'Connor, a man repulsed by losing, may disagree strongly.

However, despite Kerry’s warm favouritism heading into today’s All-Ireland semi-final at Croke Park, it’s been a one-sided duel this long time.

Since 2009 and the day of the famed ‘startled earwigs’ quarter-final, Dublin have won six of their eight championship clashes, with one of the other two the drawn final in 2019.

Kerry’s sole win in that period came in the 2022 semi-final. Even that game was level after 76 minutes and 10 seconds, only for Seánie O’Shea to land a monster free from all of 55 metres to send the Kingdom on their way to their 38th All-Ireland title.

Dublin would gain revenge in the following year’s final in what was the last championship meeting between the counties. Today’s clash, their 34th championship meeting, is the first under the FRC enhancements.

Stock values have fluctuated since that 2023 final. Kerry’s dividend yield has left them as a side hotly-tipped to go back-to-back for the first time since 2006/07.

David Clifford looks untouchable, Dylan Geaney has emerged from the shadows, injuries have cleared up dramatically in time for the run-in and in a middle quartet of Mark O’Shea, Sean O’Brien, Joe O’Connor and Diarmuid O’Connor, they have the game’s best at pinching kick-outs.

Jack O’Connor has named the same 15 that squeezed past Tyrone in the quarter-final, meaning the bench is stacked with the likes of Tom O'Sullivan, Tadhg Morley, Michéal Burns, Brian Ó Beaglaoich and Seanie O'Shea.

After their demolition of Armagh in Killarney and Donegal’s shock loss to Dublin the following day, Kerry’s path to a 40th All-Ireland title looked freshly tarmacked.

It was that 2-25 to 0-27 quarter-final win over the Red Hands that would have served notice in the camp that there’s no such thing as a pre-ordained All-Ireland champion.

Dublin fans may argue the toss on that one. During the Jim Gavin era, they looked unstoppable, and for six years in a row they were.

Semi-finals have been the norm. Using the startled earwigs in ‘09 as another launching pad, this is their 15th All-Ireland semi-final in 17 seasons. The previous 14 have brought nine wins.

The two seasons they missed out on were 2024 and ‘25 as Dublin entered what was widely accepted as a transitional period as a multitude of multiple All-Ireland winners stepped away.

The severity of the rebuild needed under new manager Ger Brennan looked more extreme than first feared during a league campaign that finished on more than one sour note as the boss picked up a 12-week suspension off the back of an incident from their Galway game in Round 7.

Their shooting, as had been the case in 2025, was far below the required standard while fade-outs would become a recurring issue.

It cost them relegation from Division 1 as they finished poorly in the majority of their games – Mayo, Kerry and Armagh all hitting final-quarter goals in their respective victories.

The Leinster SFC offered little respite. Wicklow overpowered them coming down the stretch as they came so close to one of the biggest provincial shocks of all time and while the Louth 10-point semi-final victory was strangely comfortable, the old problems returned against Westmeath as Dublin ran out of juice in extra-time having been incredibly fortunate to make it that far. They led Louth by six points at half-time of their All-Ireland series opener and lost by three.

This was not a genuine contender.

For nearly two decades, Dublin not being in an All-Ireland semi-final would be classed as a major shock. The fact that they are not missing out on a third one in a row is a pretty big surprise in itself.

So what has changed? Well, the fixture-makers deserve a slight bit of credit, scheduling their do-or-die match with Cavan for a Sunday rather than a Saturday meant Brennan could return to the side-line after his 12-week suspension ended.

It didn’t go all their own way but, crucially, they finished the stronger with a 1-03 burst seeing them clear.

Given Cavan’s struggles, it didn’t point to any significant change but the next result very much did as they dumped out All-Ireland favourites Donegal. Extra-time came their way again, but with Brennan there to encourage, this time they ruled the roost. To back that up with another heavyweight knock-out, against Galway and again on the back of a strong finish, changed the record.

They very much now are genuine contenders.

It would be easy to lay the improvement all at the feet of Brennan’s return to the line and to training and the psychological boost it provides, but there’s more than that.

Certainty now exists over key issues. Evan Comerford and Hugh O’Sullivan had been battling it out all season and both getting chances; now Comerford is the clear number one.

The kick-out strategy, so basic and flawed against Westmeath, has been rejuvenated and was central to the wins over Donegal and Galway – two of the best midfields in the country. Comerford’s restarts were much quicker, the players' positioning for breaks was much more reactive.

It also doesn’t hurt that in Peadar Ó Cofaigh Byrne they have the most dominant fetching midfielder left in this year’s championship.

Lastly, there has been a sweeping change in personnel over the championship, the majority aimed at tightening up a defence that was vulnerable to central attacks for so long. Only nine players have been named to start today from this season’s championship opener and they do look more controlled at the back.

That supplements a very experienced attack. Dublin’s four most experienced players in championship football right now are amongst the six named starting forwards with Ciarán Kilkenny (86), Cormac Costello (66), Con O’Callaghan (63) and Niall Scully (62) combining for 277 appearances. The other two – Colm Basquel and Paddy Small – have been around this particular block more than most.

And yet, for all those positive mood swings of late for Dublin, they are facing the best team in the country. A team that should be immune to complacency after their Tyrone scare.

Jack O’Connor looks well placed to take his county into All-Ireland final day for a ninth time.

Watch the Tailteann Cup final, Down v Wicklow, on Saturday from 3.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow our live blog on all matches on RTÉ.ie/sport and RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

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